Back to results
US RE47,655 E1Granted
System and method for forecasting probability of precipitation
AssigneeAccuWeather, Inc.
InventorsJoel N. Myers, Michael A. Steinberg, James T. Candor
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
A system and method are disclosed for forecasting probability of precipitation values and most probable precipitation amount values for, preferably, three hour time period increments starting from the present hour through approximately hour 96 (i.e., four days) or beyond. The values are recalculated at the beginning of each hour, based upon existing forecasting information and meteorological data. The values are communicated to end users through a communications channel such as the Internet.
Claims59
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts for periods less than six hours using existing forecasting information, the system comprising:
- storage means for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a precipitation forecasting system including processing means for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for any time period interval, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the precipitation forecasting system uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time period intervals of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation value via at least one communications channel,
- wherein T<6 hours and t≥6 hours.
8 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts for periods that are not fixed to specific pre-set times using existing forecasting information, the system comprising:
- storage means for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a precipitation forecasting system including processing means for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for any time period interval, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the precipitation forecasting system uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time period intervals of length T in the pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation value via at least one communications channel,
- wherein the probability of precipitation value are is not fixed to a specific pre-set time, but are is recalculated to a present time.
8 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts using existing forecasting information, the system comprising:
- a precipitation forecasting system including:
- a probability of precipitation forecast model for computing a probability of precipitation value for a time interval, T, within a pre-set time period, t, wherein T<6 hours and t≥6 hours, and wherein the probability of precipitation model uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for the time intervals of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time interval of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- a most probable precipitation amount forecast model for computing a precipitation amount value corresponding to each probability of precipitation value;
- and
- a communications device for communicating the probability of precipitation and precipitation amount values electronically to a remote requester.
8 more elements
A computer-implemented method of calculating probability of precipitation and most probable amount of precipitation forecasts for selected time periods and locations and communicating the same to end users, comprising the steps of, at a precipitation forecasting system:
- (a) storing probability of precipitation values from meteorological forecast models;
- (b) calculating, by the precipitation forecasting system, a location-specific probability of precipitation value for each consecutive time period intervals, T, contained within the pre-set time period, t, wherein the precipitation forecasting system uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time period intervals of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein the most probable amount of precipitation is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period interval of length T wherein the most probable amount of precipitation is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- (c) calculating, by the precipitation forecasting system, a most probable precipitation amount corresponding to each of the probability of precipitation values;
- (d) calculating, by the precipitation forecasting system, a location-specific probability of precipitation value for each t/T pairs of consecutive probability of precipitation values;
- and
- (e) communicating via at least one communications channel said location-specific probability of precipitation values for each consecutive time period intervals, T, said most probable precipitation amount, and said probability of precipitation value for each t/T pairs, to an end user.
9 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts, the system comprising:
- a storage device for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a processing device for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for any pre-determined time period, T, in a pre-set time period, t, that is greater than or equal to the pre-determined time period, wherein the processing device uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for pre-determined time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time pre-determined period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the pre-determined time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation value via at least one communications channel.
7 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts for periods that are not fixed to specific pre-set times, the system comprising:
- a storage device for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a processing device for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for any time period, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the probability of precipitation values are not fixed to a specific pre-set time, but are recalculated to a present time, and wherein the processing device uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation value via at least one communications channel.
7 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts, the system comprising:
- a probability of precipitation system including:
- a probability of precipitation forecast model for computing a probability of precipitation value for a time period, T, within a pre-set time period, t, that is greater than or equal to the time period, wherein the probability of precipitation forecast model uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- a most probable precipitation amount forecast model for computing a precipitation amount value corresponding to each probability of precipitation value;
- and
- a communications device for communicating the probability of precipitation and precipitation amount values electronically to a remote requestor.
8 more elements
A computer-implemented method for calculating and communicating at least one probability of precipitation forecast, comprising the steps of, at a precipitation forecasting system:
- determining by the precipitation forecasting system, a first probability of precipitation value for a first time period, T, within a pre-set time period, t, based upon:
- a number of time periods within the first time period, T, wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- and
- a number of time periods within the first time period, T, wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- determining, by the precipitation forecasting system, a second probability of precipitation value for a second time period overlapping at least a part of the first time period, based upon:
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- or
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- determining, by the precipitation forecasting system, a third probability of precipitation value based on the first and second values;
- and
- communicating the third probability of precipitation value via at least one communications channel.
9 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts, the system comprising:
- a storage device for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a precipitation forecasting system including a processing device for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for each of a plurality of pre-determined time periods, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the pre-set time period is greater than or equal to the plurality of pre-determined time periods, and wherein the probability of precipitation forecasting system uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for pre-determined time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the pre-determined time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the pre-determined time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation values via at least one communications channel.
7 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts for periods that are not fixed to specific pre-set times, the system comprising:
- a storage device for storing location-specific probability forecasting information;
- a precipitation forecasting system including a processing device for computing a probability of precipitation value from the forecast information for each of a plurality of time periods, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the probability of precipitation values are not fixed to a specific pre-set time, but are recalculated to a present time, and wherein the precipitation forecasting system uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a communications subsystem for communicating the probability of precipitation values via at least one communications channel.
7 more elements
A system for calculating and communicating probability of precipitation forecasts, the system comprising:
- a precipitation forecasting system including:
- a probability of precipitation forecast model for computing a probability of precipitation value for each of a plurality of time periods, T, in a pre-set time period, t, wherein the pre-set time period is greater than or equal to the plurality of time periods, and wherein the precipitation forecast model uses artificial intelligence to compute probability of precipitation values for time periods of length T in pre-set time periods of length t based on:
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is a trace amount;
- a number of time periods within the time period of length T wherein a forecasted precipitation amount is greater than or equal to a pre-set amount;
- a probability of precipitation value for the pre-set time period of length t;
- a probability of precipitation value for a next consecutive time period of length t;
- and
- a probability of precipitation value for a previous consecutive time period of length t;
- a most probable precipitation amount forecast model for computing a precipitation amount value corresponding to each of the probability of precipitation values;
- and
- a communications device for communicating each of the probability of precipitation and most probable precipitation amount values electronically to a remote requestor.
8 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.