Computer apparatus for analyzing industrial turnaround or construction project execution estimates, the apparatus comprising one or more data stores, one or more processors in operative communication with the data stores, and one or more tangible computer-readable media upon which is encoded machine-readable software which, upon its execution, is configured so that the system carries out a process comprising:
- receiving from one or more user interfaces, and storing in one or more of the data stores, current estimated data expressed initially as, or convertible into, and one or more of current estimated cost data, current estimated man-hour data and current estimated duration data, attributable a plurality of risk-determinative conditions for one or more project tasks;
- receiving from one or more of the user interfaces, and storing in one or more of the data stores, historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data expressed initially as, or convertible into, one or more of historical estimated cost data, historical estimated man-hour data and historical estimated duration data, attributable to each of the risk-determinative conditions for the project tasks;
- receiving from one or more of the user interfaces, and storing in one or more of the data stores, one or more quantitative adjustments to the current estimated data and the historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data, which quantitative adjustments at least in part account for either anomalous historical risk which is no longer anticipated with respect to the historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data, or newly known risk which is anticipated with respect to the current estimated data, or both, and by means of the processors summing the quantitative adjustments, if any, respectively with the current estimated data and the historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data attributable to each of the risk-determinative conditions for the project tasks, to yield validated current estimated data and validated historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data attributable to each of the risk-determinative conditions for the project tasks;
- calculating by means of one or more of the processors a difference between a current estimated inefficiency factor applied to the validated current estimated data and a projected inefficiency factor applied to the validated historical estimated potential inefficiency contributor data for each of the risk-determinative conditions for each of the project tasks, to yield an initial risk value for each of the risk-determinative conditions for each of the project tasks;
- receiving from one or more of the user interfaces, and storing in one or more of the data stores, a probability of occurrence for each of the risk-determinative conditions and calculating a quantified value of risk for each of the risk-determinative conditions by multiplying each of the initial risk values by the respective probability of occurrence;
- receiving from one or more of the user interfaces, and storing in one or more of the data stores, a probability of mitigation success for each of the risk-determinative conditions and any cost of mitigation to be undertaken;
- calculating by means of one or more of the processors a final risk value for each of the risk-determinative conditions, by multiplying each probability of mitigation success by the respective quantified value of risk for each of the risk-determinative conditions, and summing the resulting product with the cost of mitigation to be undertaken;
- and
- generating by means of one or more of the processors a final risk value output configured to enable a representation of the final risk value for each of the risk-determinative conditions to be electronically displayed.