Validating and calibrating a forecast model

A method comprising:

• accessing a three dimensional forecast model comprising a representation of a particle cloud;
• generating a two dimensional synthetic image of the three dimensional forecast model based on a time parameter;
• receiving measurements of the particle cloud, wherein the measurements are associated with a time indicated by the time parameter;
• determining a difference between the representation of the particle cloud and the particle cloud based on the measurements and the two dimensional synthetic image;
• and
• adjusting the three dimensional forecast model based on the difference between the representation of the particle cloud and the particle cloud.

A system, comprising:

• a memory having computer-executable instructions encoded thereon;
• and
• at least one processor functionally coupled to the memory and configured, by the computer-executable instructions, for,
• receiving first data based at least on a forecast model of a volcanic ash cloud, wherein the first data has at least one fewer spatial dimension than second data associated with the forecast model, wherein the first data comprises an image;
• determining accuracy of the forecast model based on at least the image of the first data and measurements of at least a portion of the volcanic ash cloud;
• and
• providing results of the determining the accuracy of the forecast model.