Method, apparatus, and program product for predicting virtual presence in a persistent virtual enviornment

A system comprising:

• a client computer having a first display, a first central processing unit (CPU), and a first memory coupled to the first CPU comprising a first communication logic to log a first entity onto one or more severs of a persistent virtual environment, and present the persistent virtual environment on the first display for the first entity participating in the persistent virtual environment;
• and
• a server computer having a second CPU and a second memory coupled to the second CPU comprising:
• an update logic configured to:
• responsive to the first entity participating in the persistent virtual environment over a computer network, update a first temporal profile for the first entity to represent an updated presence history of the first entity within the persistent virtual environment;
• and
• update a first coefficient vector responsive to updating the first temporal profile for the first entity, and update a second coefficient vector responsive to updating a second temporal profile for a second entity participating in the persistent virtual environment, wherein a second client computer has a third display, a third CPU, and a third memory coupled to the third CPU comprising a second communication logic to present the persistent virtual environment on the second display for the second entity participating in the persistent virtual environment,
• wherein the first and second temporal coefficient vectors comprise coefficients to one or more function, wherein a respective basis function corresponds to a specific time interval in the presence history, and wherein a respective coefficient corresponds to a general least-squares fit value to the one or more basis functions for the specific time interval;
• forecasting logic configured to:
• generate, based on the first and second coefficient vectors, a third temporal profile which indicates a temporal similarity of the first and second entities;
• and
• perform a predictive function that provides a strength of prediction and a probability value associated with a future time during which the first and said second entities are likely to both be virtually present in the persistent virtual environment is based on the third temporal profile that indicates the temporal similarity between the first and the second coefficient vectors, wherein the strength indicates a confidence level associated with the probability value of the prediction;
• and
• communication logic to send the future time, the probability value, and the strength of prediction associated with the probability value to the client computer;
• wherein the first memory of the client computer further comprises a presentation logic configured to present, on the first display of the client computer, a representation of the future time, the probability value, and the strength of prediction that are derived from the predictive function.

A non-transitory storage medium storing instructions that when executed by a computer cause the computer to perform a method, the method comprising:

• logging a first entity onto a server computer of a persistent virtual environment, wherein the first entity participates in the persistent virtual environment using a client computer comprising a first microprocessor and a first display for presenting the persistent virtual environment to the first entity;
• responsive to the first entity participating in the persistent virtual environment over a computer network, updating a first temporal profile for the first entity to represent an updated presence history of the first entity within the persistent virtual environment;
• updating a first coefficient vector responsive to updating the first temporal profile for the first entity, and updating a second coefficient vector responsive to updating a second temporal profile for a second entity participating in the persistent virtual environment, wherein a second client computer comprises a second microprocessor and a second display for presenting the persistent virtual environment to the second entity,
• wherein the first and second coefficient vectors comprise coefficients to one or more basis functions, wherein a respective basis function corresponds to a specific time interval in the presence history, and wherein a respective coefficient corresponds to a general least-squares fit value to the one or more basis functions for the specific time interval;
• generating, based on the first and second coefficient vectors, a third temporal profile which indicates a temporal similarity of the first and second entities;
• performing a predictive function that provides a strength of prediction and a probability value associated with a future time during which the first and second entities are likely to both be virtually present in the persistent virtual environment based on the third temporal profile that indicates the temporal similarity between the first and second coefficient vectors, wherein the strength indicates a confidence level associated with the probability value of the prediction;
• sending the future time, the probability value, and the strength of prediction associated with the probability value to the client computer;
• and
• presenting, on the first display of the client computer, a representation of the future time, the probability value, and the strength of prediction associated with the probability value that are derived from the predictive function.