Turbine performance diagnostic system and methods

A method of determining a root cause of a turbine alarm for at least one turbine, the method comprising:

• determining at a computing device that the turbine alarm exists;
• determining at the computing device which, if any, other alarm conditions exist when the alarm conditions exist to create an event portion;
• and
• predicting the root cause of the event from the event portion by comparing the event portion to a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), the BBN based on an evidence matrix including a plurality of entries corresponding to previously-detected alarm states in which the at least one parameter changed beyond the associated threshold and, for each of the plurality of entries, an indication of states of additional system parameters relative to additional predetermined thresholds at the times at which the previously-detected alarm states were triggered.

A system including one or more central processing units (CPUs) and memory, the one or more CPUs configured to execute software stored in memory to control the turbine performance diagnostic system to create a scorecard for one or more turbines, the system including:

• an assessment module that receives operating data from at least one turbine and produces the scorecard from the operating data, the assessment module including:
• a change detection module configured to determine when at least one parameter including a heat of the one or more turbines has changed beyond an associated threshold and generate an alarm;
• and
• a scorecard generator that generates the scorecard, the scorecard including a status indication, the status indication being based on a characteristic of the parameter that generated the alarm, the characteristic including a change in heat rate of the one or more turbines after a compressor water wash.