Calculating a behavioral path based on a statistical profile

A system for directing behavior of a first patient of a plurality of patients towards a behavioral objective, the system comprising:

• a statistical processor operative to calculate a first statistical profile of the first patient, the first statistical profile being operative, for an input of the first patient, to produce the most likely output from among a modeled patient-population, based on a comparison of the input of the first patient with the modeled patient-population, to allow the system to determine types of behavior modification treatments that are successful in achieving a particular behavioral goal based at least in part on a statistical distribution indicating a likelihood of a predicted outcome;
• a patient behavioral path calculator operative to calculate a first behavioral path to the behavioral objective for the first patient based on an initial state of the first patient and the first statistical profile of the first patient, wherein the statistical processor is further operative to determine an upper fault limit and a lower fault limit based on a statistical profile of the modeled patient-population, each of the upper fault limit and the lower fault limit comprising a variability estimate with respect to the first behavioral path;
• a patient goal calculator coupled with the patient behavioral path calculator and operative to calculate a first plurality of intermediate behavioral goals along the first behavioral path for achieving the behavioral objective;
• a patient monitoring processor coupled with the patient behavioral path calculator operative to select a type of targeted message, wherein the type of targeted message includes a positive reinforcement targeted message or a negative reinforcement targeted message, wherein the patient behavioral path calculator is further operative to generate a first targeted message based on the calculated first behavioral path and the selected type of targeted message;
• an information communication processor coupled with the patient monitoring processor operative to send the first targeted message during a first session to motivate the first patient to achieve the behavioral objective and to receive a first response representative of a result thereof, wherein the statistical processor is further operative to determine a relationship between the first response and the upper fault limit and the lower fault limit, and to trigger, based on the determination of the relationship, an intervention when the upper fault limit or the lower fault limit is crossed;
• wherein until the first patient achieves the behavioral objective,
• the statistical processor is further operative to modify the first statistical profile of the first patient based on the first response, the modified first statistical profile being further operative, for the first response, to produce the most likely output from among a modeled patient-population, updated based on the first response, to allow the system to redetermine the types of behavior modification treatments that are successful in achieving a particular behavioral goal based at least in part on a statistical distribution indicating a likelihood of the predicted outcome;
• the patient behavioral path calculator is further operative to recalculate the first behavioral path to the behavioral objective for the first patient based on the modified first statistical profile of the first patient;
• the patient monitoring processor is further operative to re-select the selected type of targeted message based on the effectiveness of the first targeted message and generate a second targeted message based on the recalculated first behavioral path and the re-selected type of targeted message;
• the information communication processor is further operative to send the second targeted message during a second session to motivate the first patient to achieve the behavioral objective and to receive a second response representative of a result thereof;
• and
• the statistical processor is further operative to modify the modified first statistical profile based on the received second response.