Estimating advertising prices for an incumbent content provider

One or more computer storage media having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that, when executed by a processor, perform a method for determining an adjusted cost-per-click value associated with a candidate position submitted by a subject incumbent content provider within a grouping of incumbent customers competing to surface an ad impression on a page, the method comprising:

• receiving customer-history data from the incumbent content provider at an online publisher, wherein the customer-history data satisfies input criteria solicited at a UI display;
• executing a price-estimation procedure, the price-estimation procedure comprising:
• (a) generating a corrected price model that ignores the influence of participation of the incumbent content provider on an advertising auction in conjunction with the competing incumbent customers;
• (b) calculating a cost-per-click modifier from a recorded average cost-per-click, included in the input criteria, that is diminished based on a separation between the recorded average cost-per-click and a bid submitted by the incumbent content provider;
• and
• (c) utilizing the corrected price model and the submitted candidate position to predict the adjusted cost-per-click value for the incumbent content provider at the candidate position without removing bid results associated with the incumbent content provider from consideration, wherein the adjusted cost-per-click value is predicted by reducing the recorded average cost-per-click by the cost-per-click modifier tuned with various derived parameters;
• and revealing the adjusted cost-per-click value at the UI display.

A computer system for deriving an adjusted cost-per-click value for a subject incumbent content provider within a grouping of incumbent customers competing to surface an ad impression on a page, the system comprising:

• a server device that invokes a price-estimation procedure configured for determining the adjusted cost-per-click value, wherein the price-estimation procedure is implemented on, at least, the following components:
• (a) an input component for receiving input criteria from the incumbent content provider, wherein the input criteria comprises customer-history data collected by the server and a candidate position within a ranking of the competing incumbent customers that is attractive to the incumbent content provider;
• (b) a position-adjustment component for generating a corrected rank model of the ranking of the competing incumbent customers absent consideration of the incumbent content provider, for estimating a minimum position and a maximum position where a stored model deviates from a corrected rank model, wherein the stored model considers bid results supplied by the incumbent content provider, and for utilizing the corrected rank model to predict an adjusted average position of the incumbent content provider within the ranking without extracting bid results associated therewith from storage at the server, wherein the adjusted average position is predicted as a function of the customer-history data, the minimum position, and the maximum position;
• and
• (c) a cost-per-click adjustment component for generating a corrected price model that ignores the influence of participation of the incumbent content provider in an advertising auction in conjunction with the competing incumbent customers, and utilizing the corrected price model and the candidate position to predict the adjusted cost-per-click value for the incumbent content provider;
• and a presentation device for revealing the adjusted cost-per-click value at a UI display.