Dynamic prediction of demand cycles for temperature overshoot control in a thermostat

A method, comprising:

• triggering a demand cycle in which an HVAC system is configured to match a sensed temperature in a space to a set point temperature;
• collecting event data for the demand cycle from one or more devices, wherein the event data comprises:
• a timestamp indicating a start time of the demand cycle;
• a set point temperature value for the HVAC system;
• and
• a sensed temperature value of the space;
• electronically calculating, over the demand cycle, a temperature error between the set point temperature and the sensed temperature;
• electronically extracting a rate of change value of the temperature error over a first portion of the demand cycle;
• determining, based on the rate of change value over the first portion of the demand cycle, a predicted temperature error at an expected end time of the demand cycle;
• monitoring the temperature error over a second portion of the demand cycle;
• in conjunction with monitoring the temperature error over the second portion of the demand cycle, determining whether the temperature error matches the predicted temperature error;
• in response to determining that the temperature error matches the predicted temperature error, associating a point in time where the temperature error is determined to match the predicted temperature error with an end time of the demand cycle;
• monitoring the rate of change of the temperature error over a period of time that is subsequent to the demand cycle;
• in conjunction with monitoring the rate of change of the temperature error over the period of time, determining whether the rate of change of the temperature error is equal to a limit value;
• in response to determining that the rate of change of the temperature error is equal to the limit value, associating an additional point in time where the rate of change of the temperature error is determined to be equal to the limit value with a corrected end time of the demand cycle;
• assigning, based on the start time and the corrected end time, an expected time duration for an additional demand cycle;
• and
• triggering the additional demand cycle in which the HVAC system is configured to match an additional sensed temperature in the space to an additional set point temperature over the expected time duration.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing instructions that when executed by a processor cause the processor to:

• trigger a demand cycle in which an HVAC system is configured to match a sensed temperature in a space to a set point temperature;
• collect event data for the demand cycle from one or more devices, wherein the event data comprises:
• a timestamp indicating a start time of the demand cycle;
• a set point temperature value for the HVAC system;
• and
• a sensed temperature value of the space;
• electronically calculate, over the demand cycle, a temperature error between the set point temperature and the sensed temperature;
• electronically extract a rate of change value of the temperature error over a first portion of the demand cycle;
• determine, based on the rate of change value over the first portion of the demand cycle, a predicted temperature error at an expected end time of the demand cycle;
• monitoring the temperature error over a second portion of the demand cycle;
• in conjunction with monitoring the temperature error over the second portion of the demand cycle, determine whether the temperature error matches the predicted temperature error;
• in response to determining that the temperature error matches the predicted temperature error, associate a point in time where the temperature error is determined to match the predicted temperature error with an end time of the demand cycle;
• monitor the rate of change of the temperature error over a period of time that is subsequent to the demand cycle;
• in conjunction with monitoring the rate of change of the temperature error over the period of time, determine whether the rate of change of the temperature error is equal to a limit value;
• in response to determining that the rate of change of the temperature error is equal to the limit value associate an additional point in time where the rate of change of the temperature error is determined to be equal to the limit value with a corrected end time of the demand cycle;
• assign, based on the start time and the corrected end time, an expected time duration for an additional demand cycle;
• and
• trigger the additional demand cycle in which the HVAC system is configured to match an additional sensed temperature in the space to an additional set point temperature over the expected time duration.