System and method for material event modeling

A non-transitory computer readable medium having stored thereon instructions for causing a processing circuitry to execute a process for material cyber event modeling, the process comprising:

• generating a cyber event catalog based on a past cyber event, the cyber event catalog including a plurality of cyber events, wherein generating the cyber event catalog further comprises:
• determining a distribution of all event parameters by extrapolating one or more data points from a past event;
• and
• assigning a set of restriction rules, wherein the parameter distribution and the set of restriction rules are used to create events in the event catalog;
• simulating a cyber event, of the plurality of cyber events included in the cyber event catalog, to predict whether an organization is affected by a simulated cyber event, wherein the organization is an organization selected from a hazard table, and wherein the simulating cyber event simulates malicious activity in the organization;
• and
• estimating a damage of the cyber event on the organization by employing a damage function, wherein estimating the damage includes:
• generating an exceedance probability (EP) curve for the cyber event, for at least one materiality category.

A system for material cyber event modeling, comprising:

• a processing circuitry;
• and
• a memory, the memory containing instructions that, when executed by the processing circuitry, configure the system to:
• generate a cyber event catalog based on a past cyber event, the cyber event catalog including a plurality of cyber events, wherein the system is further configured to:
• determine a distribution of all event parameters by extrapolating one or more data points from a past event;
• and
• assign a set of restriction rules, wherein the parameter distribution and set of restriction rules are used to create events in the event catalog;
• simulate a cyber event, of the plurality of cyber events included in the cyber event catalog, to predict whether an organization is affected by a simulated cyber event, wherein the organization is an organization selected from a hazard table, and wherein the simulating cyber event simulates malicious activity in the organization;
• and
• estimate a damage of the cyber event on the organization by employing a damage function, wherein estimating the damage includes:
• generating an exceedance probability (EP) curve for the cyber event, for at least one materiality category.