Method, system, device and medium for evaluating agricultural water-saving policies using a macro-micro link approach

A system for evaluating agricultural water-saving policies using a macro-micro link approach, comprising:

• a policy impact pathway construction module, configured to generate a link-approach pathway from macro policy conditions, to micro farm household decision-making, to micro-agricultural water use results, to macro policy effects;
• a farm household decision-making simulation module, configured to establish a farm household production decision-making sub-model, wherein the farm household decision-making simulation module comprises:
• a heuristic-exploratory decision-making sub-unit, configured to calculate the satisfaction level of income changes of farm households in the past m years based on the cumulative prospect theory and generate a technology choice set;
• an optimization decision-making sub-unit, configured to solve and output an optimal technology and a factor allocation scheme based on the technology choice set with a goal of maximizing total profit;
• an agricultural water use estimation module, configured to call a pre-stored agricultural water use estimation sub-model to calculate agricultural water use;
• a scaling-up module, configured to aggregate the agricultural water use and grain output at the farm household level to the regional level by using the scaling-up method, wherein the scaling-up module comprises:
• a kernel density estimation unit, configured to fit a joint probability distribution of sample farm households attributes;
• a sampling unit, configured to determine a sampling scale according to a total number of production subjects in the objective region, and randomly generate an attribute data set;
• and
• a regional summary unit, configured to generate regional policy effect indicators by adding up the agricultural water use and grain output of all production subjects and technology adoption results.