Method of predicting holiday expressway travel traffic volume based on influence of weather factors

A method of predicting a holiday expressway travel traffic volume based on influence of weather factors, comprising the following steps:

• S1, collecting historical weather data and historical holiday travel traffic volume data, and establishing a relative influence coefficient between historical weather and a travel traffic volume;
• S2, constructing, based on the relative influence coefficient between the historical weather and the travel traffic volume obtained in Step S1, a travel traffic volume transfer model based on weather data;
• S3, analyzing, based on the historical holiday travel traffic volume data obtained in Step S1, the daily travel traffic volume of a plurality of historical similar holidays, selecting basic characteristics of the travel traffic volume, constructing derived characteristics of the travel traffic volume through crossover operation between the basic characteristics of the travel traffic volume, and then constructing a multivariable linear regression model based on historical travel traffic volume characteristics;
• and correcting the predicted travel traffic volume obtained by the multivariable linear regression model based on the travel traffic volume transfer model constructed in Step S2;
• S4, correcting, after collecting the actual travel traffic volume data of the previous day during holidays, the predicted travel traffic volume of the remaining dates of holidays by comparing the actual travel traffic volume with a travel traffic volume of a corresponding date predicted based on Step S3 to obtain the corrected predicted travel traffic volume of the remaining dates of holidays;
• S5, obtaining, based on the methods of Step S2, Step S3 and Step S4, a departure volume of each starting point and an arrival volume of each ending point predicted for each day of holidays, and constructing a travel traffic volume model of a stratified flow road network based on a time allocation ratio of historical characteristic dates;
• and
• S6, constructing an objective function, and optimizing and solving the travel traffic volume model of the stratified flow road network obtained in Step S5 by using a reverse gradient propagation method to obtain a predicted result of the holiday expressway travel traffic volume based on influence of weather factors.