Failure probability evaluation apparatus

A failure probability evaluation apparatus that targets on a component used in a plurality of machines to evaluate a failure probability of the component for each of the machines, the failure probability evaluation apparatus comprising:

• a maintenance history database configured to store maintenance history data of the component in the plurality of machines;
• an operation database configured to store operation data acquired in time series by a sensor of each of the plurality of machines;
• and
• a calculation apparatus configured to identify, using the maintenance history database and the operation database, a failure probability function of the component, and to calculate, using the identified failure probability function, the failure probability of the component for each of the machines, wherein
• the calculation apparatus is configured to
• calculate, using a damage model with the operation data as a parameter, a progression of damage to the component after installation of the sensor,
• learn the progression of the damage to the component after the installation of the sensor and estimate a progression of damage to the component before the installation of the sensor,
• calculate accumulated damage to the component based on at least one of the progression of the damage to the component after the installation of the sensor and the progression of the damage to the component before the installation of the sensor, and
• identify, using the accumulated damage, the failure probability function.