Method and device for estimation of a probability of damage caused by the sloshing of a liquid load during an operation of transferring said liquid load between two floating structures

A method (300) for estimation of a probability of damage caused by sloshing of a liquid load during an operation to transfer said liquid load from a first floating structure (1) to a second floating structure (40), the first floating structure (1) and the second floating structure (40) being associated with one another during said transfer operation so that the first floating structure (1) and the second floating structure (40) are oriented with a common bearing (99), said method (300) including:

• obtaining (301) a forecast geographical position of said transfer operation;
• obtaining (302) meteorological and oceanographic forecasts relating to said geographical position for a plurality of periods of time, said periods of time together covering a forecast duration of said transfer operation, said forecasts including, for each period of time, a swell state, in which the state of the swell includes a direction of the swell, a significant height of the swell and a period of the swell;
• for each period of time:
• obtaining (304) the common bearing (99) of the first and second floating structures (1, 40);
• determining (305) at least one forecast filling level of at least one tank of at least one of said first or second floating structures (1, 40) intended to contain all or part of said liquid load;
• determining (306) an angle of attack of the swell, which is an angle between said common bearing (99) of the first and second floating structures and the direction of the swell (12);
• and estimating (307) at least one probability of damage to said at least one tank as a function of the angle of attack of the swell determined in this way, of the significant height of the swell, of the period of the swell and of said at least one forecast filling level of said tank;
• and
• supplying (308) information to a user as a function of said at least one probability of damage estimated in this way.