A polishing state analysis prediction program to predict a future polishing state of a polishing-target substrate to be polished based on a cathodeluminescence image of the polishing-target substrate, the image being obtained by a cathodeluminescence method, the program, when executed by a computer, causing the computer to perform:
- calculating average light emission intensity data or average luminance data from the cathodeluminescence image of each predetermined time after start of polishing the substrate;
- and
- plotting the average light emission intensity data or the average luminance data, and deriving a formula representing a fitting curve resulted from the plotting by using a predetermined function.