Reach and frequency prediction for digital component transmissions

A system comprising:

• one or more computers;
• and
• one or more storage devices communicatively coupled to the one or more computers, wherein the one or more storage devices store instructions that, when executed by the one or more computers, cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:
• obtaining an observed frequency histogram corresponding to an observed transmission commitment, wherein:
• a transmission commitment specifies a number of transmissions of a digital component, and
• a frequency histogram corresponding to the transmission commitment defines, for each of a plurality of frequency values, a respective number of users who each receive a number of transmissions of the digital component given by the frequency value when the digital component is transmitted a number of times specified by the transmission commitment;
• generating a frequency model based on the observed frequency histogram, wherein:
• the frequency model is a parametric model parameterized by a set of model parameters,
• the frequency model is configured to process an input defining an input transmission commitment to generate an output that defines a predicted frequency histogram corresponding to the input transmission commitment, and
• generating the frequency model comprises training the set of model parameters of the frequency model, using a numerical optimization technique, to optimize an objective function that depends on the observed frequency histogram;
• receiving a request to predict a frequency histogram corresponding to a target transmission commitment specifying a target number of transmissions of the digital component;
• and
• in response to receiving the request:
• processing data defining the target transmission commitment using the frequency model to generate a predicted frequency histogram corresponding to the target transmission commitment;
• and
• generating one or more predictions characterizing the target transmission commitment using the predicted frequency histogram.

One or more non-transitory computer storage media storing instructions that when executed by one or more computers cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:

• obtaining an observed frequency histogram corresponding to an observed transmission commitment, wherein:
• a transmission commitment specifies a number of transmissions of a digital component, and
• a frequency histogram corresponding to a transmission commitment defines, for each of a plurality of frequency values, a respective number of users who each receive a number of transmissions of the digital component given by the frequency value when the digital component is transmitted a number of times specified by the transmission commitment;
• generating a frequency model based on the observed frequency histogram, wherein:
• the frequency model is a parametric model parameterized by a set of model parameters,
• the frequency model is configured to process an input defining an input transmission commitment to generate an output that defines a predicted frequency histogram corresponding to the input transmission commitment, and
• generating the frequency model comprises training the set of model parameters of the frequency model, using a numerical optimization technique, to optimize an objective function that depends on the observed frequency histogram;
• receiving a request to predict a frequency histogram corresponding to a target transmission commitment specifying a target number of transmissions of the digital component;
• and
• in response to receiving the request:
• processing data defining the target transmission commitment using the frequency model to generate a predicted frequency histogram corresponding to the target transmission commitment;
• and
• generating one or more predictions characterizing the target transmission commitment using the predicted frequency histogram.