Methods and Systems for Hydrocarbon Future Field Size Assessment

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having executable code stored thereon for hydrocarbon resource exploration assessment, the executable code comprising a set of instructions that causes a processor to perform operations comprising:

• obtaining a plurality of discovered volumes associated with the geologic area of interest, the plurality of discovered volumes associated with a respective plurality of dates;
• sorting the plurality of discovered volumes by the respective plurality of dates;
• dividing the sorted plurality of discovered volumes into quintiles, where each quintile includes a sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes, wherein each quintile is sorted by a size of the respective subset of the plurality of discovered volumes;
• assigning a probability to each discovered volume of the respective subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of each quintile;
• obtaining a plurality of prospect scenarios associated with the geologic area of interest, the plurality of prospect scenarios associated with a sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes, wherein each of the plurality of prospect scenarios is sorted by a size of the respective plurality of prospect volumes;
• assigning a probability to each of the prospect volume of the sorted respectively plurality of prospect volumes of each of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• plotting, on a lognormal scale versus probability, the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of a selected quintile and the sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes for each of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• classifying the plurality of prospect scenarios into a first class, a second class, or a third class based on a comparison with the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes;
• and
• selecting, based on the classification, a prospect scenario of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• determining the future field size distribution (FFSD) for the geologic area of interest by combining the sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes of the selected prospect scenario with the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of the selected quintile.

A system for hydrocarbon resource exploration assessment, comprising:

• a processor;
• a non-transitory computer-readable storage memory accessible by the processor and having executable code stored thereon, the executable code comprising a set of instructions that causes the processor to perform operations comprising:
• obtaining a plurality of discovered volumes associated with the geologic area of interest, the plurality of discovered volumes associated with a respective plurality of dates;
• sorting the plurality of discovered volumes by the respective plurality of dates;
• dividing the sorted plurality of discovered volumes into quintiles, where each quintile includes a sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes, wherein each quintile is sorted by a size of the respective subset of the plurality of discovered volumes;
• assigning a probability to each discovered volume of the respective subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of each quintile;
• obtaining a plurality of prospect scenarios associated with the geologic area of interest, the plurality of prospect scenarios associated with a sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes, wherein each of the plurality of prospect scenarios is sorted by a size of the respective plurality of prospect volumes;
• assigning a probability to each of the prospect volume of the sorted respectively plurality of prospect volumes of each of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• plotting, on a lognormal scale versus probability, the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of a selected quintile and the sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes for each of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• classifying the plurality of prospect scenarios into a first class, a second class, or a third class based on a comparison with the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes;
• and
• selecting, based on the classification, a prospect scenario of the plurality of prospect scenarios;
• determining the future field size distribution (FFSD) for the geologic area of interest by combining the sorted respective plurality of prospect volumes of the selected prospect scenario with the sorted subset of the plurality of discovered volumes of the selected quintile.