Method and system for predicting failures of sucker rod pumps using scaled load ratios

A method of predicting pump failures of rod pumps using a scaled load ratio, the method comprising:

• optimizing the size of a rolling window, upper and lower bounds of a normal range of the scaled load ratio, an alert period, and an alert frequency ratio as optimal input values through an optimization module constituting software;
• receiving data of a current maximum load on a surface rod, a current minimum load on the surface rod, and a current speed of a target oil well pump from a storage device by means of a processor of a pump failure prediction system;
• removing outliers showing an abnormality of the received data on the basis of an outlier removable reference set using the outlier removable module constituting the software that is executed by the processor;
• receiving data of maximum and minimum loads on the surface rod in normal operation from the storage device and scaling the maximum and minimum loads by means of the processor;
• calculating scaled load ratios using the scaled load ratio calculation module constituting the software for the data excluding outlier data;
• calculating the average of scaled load ratios in the rolling window method using the scaled load ratio through average value calculation module constituting the software by applying a rolling window method to remove noises of the calculated scaled load ratios;
• determining whether the average of scaled load ratios is in the normal range, and classifying values as normal or abnormal events using the scaled load ratio-normal range determination and classification module constituting the software;
• calculating the ratio of abnormal events and generating an alert when the calculated ratio exceeds the alert frequency ratio using the failure data ratio calculation and alert generation module constituting the software;
• and
• monitoring a pump state using the pump failure prediction system to accurately determine the pump state using the scaled load ratios, a pump speed, a pump card, and a pump fillage.