Method and system for simulating well performance using wellhead measurements

A system, comprising:

• a wellhead coupled to a wellbore,
• a wellhead temperature sensor coupled to the wellhead;
• a water cut sensor coupled to the wellhead;
• a flow rate sensor coupled to the wellhead;
• and
• a control system comprising a computer processor and coupled to the wellhead temperature sensor and the water cut sensor, wherein the control system comprises functionality for:
• obtaining first wellhead temperature data from the wellhead temperature sensor;
• obtaining first production data from the flow rate sensor regarding the wellhead;
• obtaining water cut data from the water cut sensor;
• calibrating a production model for the wellhead based on the first production data and the first wellhead temperature data to generate a calibrated production model;
• and
• determining a predicted production rate of the wellhead using the calibrated production model, the water cut data, and flowing wellhead temperature data.

A non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions executable by a computer processor, the instructions comprising functionality for:

• obtaining first wellhead temperature data regarding a wellhead coupled to a wellbore;
• obtaining first production data regarding the wellhead;
• obtaining water cut data regarding the wellhead;
• calibrating a production model for the wellhead based on the first production data and the first wellhead temperature data to generate a calibrated production model;
• and
• determining a predicted production rate of the wellhead using the calibrated production model, the water cut data, and flowing wellhead temperature data.