System, Method, and Computer Program Product for Generating a Synthetic Control Group

A system comprising a server comprising at least one processor, the server being programmed and/or configured to:

• receive transaction account data of a plurality of transaction accounts in a first time period;
• receive, via a transaction service provider system, transaction data associated with at least one transaction completed by a first set of transaction accounts of the plurality of transaction accounts with at least one target merchant in a second time period;
• generate a synthetic control group comprising a subset of transaction accounts sampled from the first set of transaction accounts;
• determine, using a machine learning model, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a propensity score representative of a likelihood of being associated with a test group;
• assign, based at least partly on the propensity score of each transaction account and historic transaction data, an entropy balancing weight to each transaction account of the synthetic control group;
• and
• alter, based on the transaction data and the synthetic control group, at least one operational parameter of a computer-implemented advertisement program to be executed in a third time period.

A computer program product comprising at least one non-transitory computer-readable medium including program instructions that, when executed by at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to:

• receive transaction account data of a plurality of transaction accounts in a first time period;
• receive, via a transaction service provider system, transaction data associated with at least one transaction completed by a first set of transaction accounts of the plurality of transaction accounts with at least one target merchant in a second time period;
• generate a synthetic control group comprising a subset of transaction accounts sampled from the first set of transaction accounts;
• determine, using a machine learning model, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a propensity score representative of a likelihood of being associated with a test group;
• assign, based at least partly on the propensity score of each transaction account and historic transaction data, an entropy balancing weight to each transaction account of the synthetic control group;
• and
• alter, based on the transaction data and the synthetic control group, at least one operational parameter of a computer-implemented advertisement program to be executed in a third time period.