Systems and methods for software and developer management and evaluation

A method of calculating a failure probability of a change in one or more source code repositories, comprising:

• selecting the one or more source code repositories;
• analyzing the source files in the source code repositories;
• analyzing at least one commit made to the source code repositories, the commit comprising one or more changes to the source code and a commit message;
• determining a type of the commit selected from the group consisting of a fixing commit and a new code commit;
• if the commit is a new code commit, determining a set of areas of source code modified;
• if the code is a fixing commit, determining which commit of a plurality of new code commits is a causing commit, which caused a defect affiliated with the fixing commit;
• analyzing the commit message and calculating one or more parameters of the commit message;
• training a machine learning classifier with a set of data comprising the type of commit, the set of areas modified, the causing commit, and the commit message;
• and
• using the machine learning classifier to calculate a probability that the commit will cause a failure in the source code repository.