US 2021/0233606 A1 · MEASUREMENT AND PREDICTION OF VIRUS GENETIC MUTATION PATTERNS

Abstract

Mutation patterns of a virus (e.g., influenza virus) are identified and predicted based on identifying effective mutations in an amino acid sequence of the virus and an effective mutation period during which the mutation enables the virus to escape from human immunity. Based on analysis of existing virus composition and infection rates, a measure of genetic mutation activity (“g-measure”) is determined, and one or more associated parameters that further characterize virus genetic activity may also be optimized. The g-measure and/or associated parameters can be used to predict future genetic activity of the virus, which can aid in selection of strains for a future vaccine and/or predictions of infectious-disease outbreaks.

Claims29

Dependent claims

A method for modeling virus activity, the method comprising:

for each of a plurality of time periods within an investigation period, determining a quantitative measure of genetic activity of a virus (“g-measure”), wherein the g-measure models a combination of prevalence of effective mutations and number of simultaneous effective mutations;
and
using one or more of the g-measure and the prevalence of one or more individual mutations to predict activity of the virus during a future time period subsequent to the investigation period.

A system comprising:

a memory to store data;
and
a processor coupled to the memory and configured to:
determine, for each of a plurality of time periods within an investigation period, a quantitative measure of genetic activity of a virus (“g-measure”), wherein the g-measure models a combination of prevalence of effective mutations and number of simultaneous effective mutations;
and
use one or more of the g-measure and the prevalence of one or more individual mutations to predict activity of the virus during a future time period subsequent to the investigation period.

3 more elements

A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon program code instructions that, when executed by a processor of a computer system, cause the processor to perform a method comprising:

determining, for each of a plurality of time periods within an investigation period, a quantitative measure of genetic activity of a virus (“g-measure”), wherein the g-measure models a combination of prevalence of effective mutations and number of simultaneous effective mutations;
and
using one or more of the g-measure and the prevalence of one or more individual mutations to predict activity of the virus during a future time period subsequent to the investigation period.

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.

Facts

Application

17/252,698Filed 18 Jun 2019

Priority

20 Jun 2018

Published

29 Jul 2021

Term ends

Not estimatedThe source records don’t support an estimate.

Classification19 codes

C12N 7/00
Viruses
G16B 5/30
ICT specially adapted for modelling or simulations in systems biology, e.g. gene-regulatory networks, protein interaction networks or metabolic…:…
A61P 31/00
Antiinfectives, i.e. antibiotics, antiseptics, chemotherapeutics
G06F 30/20
Computer-aided design [CAD]: design optimisation, verification or simulation

Measurement and prediction of virus genetic mutation patterns

Life of this patent

Measurement and prediction of virus genetic mutation patterns

Life of this patent

Abstract

Claims29