Migration tendency estimation device, migration tendency estimation method, and program

A computer-implemented method for estimating aspects of migration of persons between areas, the method comprises:

• receiving demographic information;
• estimating, based on the demographic information, a first parameter, the first parameter indicating a likelihood of persons departing from a first area to one of a plurality of areas, and the plurality of areas excluding the first area;
• estimating, based on the demographic information, a second parameter, the second parameter indicating a likelihood of gathering of persons in the first area from each of the plurality of areas;
• estimating, based on the demographic information, a third parameter, the third parameter indicating an influence of a distance between the first area and each of the plurality of areas on a probability of migration of persons between the first area and each of the plurality of areas;
• and
• generating, based at least on the first parameter, the second parameter, and the third parameter, a set of probabilities of migration of persons from the first area to each of the plurality of areas.

A system for estimating aspects of migration of persons between areas, the system comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• a memory storing computer-executable instructions that when executed by the processor cause the system to:
• receive demographic information;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a first parameter, the first parameter indicating a likelihood of persons departing from a first area to one of a plurality of areas, and the plurality of areas excluding the first area;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a second parameter, the second parameter indicating a likelihood of gathering of persons in the first area from each of the plurality of areas;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a third parameter, the third parameter indicating an influence of a distance between the first area and each of the plurality of areas on a probability of migration of persons between the first area and each of the plurality of areas;
• and
• generate, based at least on the first parameter, the second parameter, and the third parameter, a set of probabilities of migration of persons from the first area to each of the plurality of areas.

A computer-readable non-transitory recording medium storing computer-executable instructions that when executed by a processor cause a computer system to:

• receive demographic information;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a first parameter, the first parameter indicating a likelihood of persons departing from a first area to one of a plurality of areas, and the plurality of areas excluding the first area;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a second parameter, the second parameter indicating a likelihood of gathering of persons in the first area from each of the plurality of areas;
• estimate, based on the demographic information, a third parameter, the third parameter indicating an influence of a distance between the first area and each of the plurality of areas on a probability of migration of persons between the first area and each of the plurality of areas;
• and
• generate, based at least on the first parameter, the second parameter, and the third parameter, a set of probabilities of migration of persons from the first area to each of the plurality of areas.