Wireless transmission rate adaptation

A wireless access point, comprising:

• a wireless transceiver;
• processing circuitry;
• and
• a storage medium including instructions that, when executed by the processing circuitry, cause the processing circuitry to:
• transmit a first set of packets using first transmission characteristics represented by a first state of a finite state machine;
• receive information including transmission success status for each packet of the first set of packets;
• update, based on the transmission success status, weights of a first plurality of edges in a finite state machine corresponding to success and failure probabilities of packets transmitted using the first transmission characteristics;
• and
• transition from the first state to a second state of the finite state machine corresponding to second transmission characteristics.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium comprising instructions that, when executed by processing circuitry, cause the processing circuitry to:

• wirelessly transmit a first set of packets using a first modulation and coding scheme, a first number of spatial streams, and a first guard interval;
• receive information including whether each packet of the first set was successfully transmitted;
• update, based on the received information, a weight of an edge of a Markov chain representing a transition to a first state corresponding to the first modulation and coding scheme, the first number of spatial streams, and the first guard interval;
• transition from the first state to a second state of the finite state machine corresponding to a second modulation and coding scheme, a second number of spatial streams, and a second guard interval;
• and
• wirelessly transmit a second set of packets using the second modulation and coding scheme, the second number of spatial streams, and the second guard interval.