US 2019/0170901 A1Published application

System and Method For Irradiance-based Estimation Of Photovoltaic Fleet Power Generation With The Aid Of A Digital Computer

AssigneeClean Power Research, L.L.C.

InventorThomas E. Hoff

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Abstract

The calculation of the variance of a correlation coefficient matrix for a photovoltaic fleet can be completed in linear space as a function of decreasing distance between pairs of photovoltaic plant locations. When obtaining irradiance data from a satellite imagery source, irradiance statistics must first be converted from irradiance statistics for an area into irradiance statistics for an average point within a pixel in the satellite imagery. The average point statistics are then averaged across all satellite pixels to determine the average across the whole photovoltaic fleet region. Where pairs of photovoltaic systems are located too far away from each other to be statistically correlated, the correlation coefficients in the matrix for that pair of photovoltaic systems are effectively zero. Consequently, the double summation portion of the calculation can be simplified to eliminate zero values based on distance between photovoltaic plant locations, substantially decreasing the size of the problem space.

Claims20

Dependent claims

A system for irradiance-based estimation of photovoltaic fleet power generation with the aid of a digital computer, comprising:

a storage comprising a set of pixels in satellite imagery data of overhead sky clearness that have been correlated to a bounded area within a geographic region, each pixel representing collective irradiance over a plurality of points within the bounded area, each point suitable for operation of a photovoltaic system comprised in a photovoltaic fleet, the photovoltaic fleet connected to a power grid;
and
a computer coupled to the storage and comprising a processor configured to execute code in a memory, the code comprising:
a determination module configured to determine an area clearness index based on the collective irradiances, as represented by the set of pixels correlated to the bounded area;
an assignment module configured to assign a sequential identifier to each of the points;
an evaluation module configured to determine a variance of the area clearness index through sequentially evaluating the points based on their identifier, the evaluation module comprising:
a point module configured to choose a point within the bounded area based on the assigned identifier of that point, and to determine a zero correlation value for the chosen point;
a selection module configured to select at least some of the points within the bounded area for pairing with the chosen point that have not already been evaluated;
a pairing module configured to pair the chosen point with each of the selected points and to find a correlation coefficient for each of the point pairings;
and
a calculation module configured to calculate a covariance for at least some of the point pairings and adding the calculated covariances to the variance of the area clearness index;
and
a power statistics module configured to build a power statistics for the photovoltaic fleet using the variance of the area clearness index,
wherein the power grid is operated based on the power statistics.

11 more elements

A method for estimating photovoltaic fleet power generation based on irradiance statistics with the aid of a digital computer, comprising steps of:

obtaining solar irradiance statistics comprising a set of pixels from satellite imagery that have been collected for a bounded area within a geographic region suitable for operation of a photovoltaic fleet connected to a power grid, each pixel representing collective irradiance over a plurality of the points within the bounded area;
and
determining an area clearness index based on the collective irradiances, as represented by the set of pixels correlated to the bounded area;
assigning a sequential identifier to each of the points;
determining a variance of the area clearness index through sequentially evaluating the points based on their identifier, comprising:
choosing a point within the bounded area based on the assigned identifier of that point, and determining at least one of the zero correlation value for the chosen point and a zero correlation distance;
selecting one or more the points within the bounded area for pairing with the chosen point based on at least one of whether the pairs have been previously evaluated and whether they are within the zero correlation distance of the chosen point;
pairing the chosen point with each of the selected points and finding a correlation coefficient for each of the point pairings;
and
calculating a covariance for at least some of the point pairings and adding the calculated covariances to the variance of the area clearness index;
and
building power statistics for the photovoltaic fleet using the variance of the area clearness index,
wherein the steps are performed on a suitably-programmed computer and the power grid is operated based on the power statistics.

10 more elements

A method for irradiance-based estimation of photovoltaic fleet power generation with the aid of a digital computer, comprising steps of:

obtaining solar irradiance statistics comprising a set of pixels from satellite imagery that have been collected for a bounded area within a geographic region suitable for operation of a photovoltaic fleet connected to a power grid, each pixel representing collective irradiance over a plurality of the points within the bounded area;
and
determining an area clearness index based on the collective irradiances, as represented by the set of pixels correlated to the bounded area;
assigning a sequential identifier to each of the points;
determining a variance of the area clearness index through sequentially evaluating the points based on their identifier, comprising:
choosing a point within the bounded area based on the assigned identifier of that point, and determining a zero correlation value for the chosen point;
selecting at least some of the points within the bounded area for pairing with the chosen point that have not already been evaluated;
pairing the chosen point with each of the selected points and finding a correlation coefficient for each of the point pairings;
and
calculating a covariance for at least some of the point pairings and adding the calculated covariances to the variance of the area clearness index;
and
building power statistics for the photovoltaic fleet using the variance of the area clearness index,
wherein the steps are performed on a suitably-programmed computer and the power grid is operated based on the power statistics.

10 more elements

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.

Facts

Application: 16/267,005Filed 4 Feb 2019
Priority: 25 Jul 2011
Published: 6 Jun 2019
Term ends: Not estimatedThe source records don’t support an estimate.

Classification28 codes

H02J 3/004
Circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks: generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
G01W 1/02
Meteorology: instruments for indicating weather conditions by measuring two or more variables, e.g. humidity, pressure, temperature, cloud cover…
G01W 1/12
Meteorology: sunshine duration recorders
G06Q 10/04
Administration; Management: forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or…

Family

Application13/190,442Continuation · filed 25 Jul 2011
Application13/453,956Continuation · filed 23 Apr 2012
Application13/462,505Continuation in part · filed 2 May 2012
Application13/866,901Continuation · filed 19 Apr 2013
Application15/231,701Continuation · filed 8 Aug 2016
Application16/267,005Continuation
Application13/866,901Continuation in part
Application13/462,505Continuation
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From the US filing history. Foreign family members aren’t listed.

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