US 2019/0057324 A1 · PREDICTING UN-CAPACITATED FREIGHT DEMAND ON A MULTI-HOP SHIPPING ROUTE

Abstract

Systems and methods for predicting un-capacitated freight demand on a multi-hop shipping route are disclosed. In embodiments, a computer-implemented method, comprises: receiving daily customer booking data from one or more remote servers; determining an estimated customer arrival pattern for each port on a shipping route of a shipping vessel based on the customer booking data; determining an estimated blocking probability for each of the ports on the shipping route due to shipping capacity constraints, upstream bookings and downstream bookings; determining an estimated probability of booking cancellations for each of the ports on the shipping route; determining an estimate of how much freight will be loaded onto the shipping vessel for each of the ports; calculating un-capacitated shipping demand for each of the ports; and determining un-capacitated demand per day for each of the ports of the shipping route based on the capacitated demand and the estimated customer arrival pattern.

Claims20

Dependent claims

A computer-implemented method, comprising:

receiving, by a computing device, daily customer booking data from one or more remote servers;
determining, by the computing device, an estimated customer arrival pattern for each port on a shipping route of a shipping vessel based on the customer booking data;
determining, by the computing device, an estimated blocking probability for each of the ports on the shipping route due to shipping capacity constraints, upstream bookings and downstream bookings;
determining, by the computing device, an estimated probability of booking cancellations for each of the ports on the shipping route;
determining, by the computing device, an estimate of how much freight will be loaded onto the shipping vessel for each of the ports on the shipping route;
calculating, by the computing device, un-capacitated shipping demand for each of the ports on the shipping route;
and
determining, by the computing device, un-capacitated demand per day for each of the ports of the shipping route based on the capacitated demand and the estimated customer arrival pattern.

5 more elements

A computer program product for predicting un-capacitated freight demand on a multi-hop shipping route, the computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, the program instructions executable by a computing device to cause the computing device to:

determine an estimated customer arrival pattern for each port on a shipping route of a shipping vessel by calculating a maximum likelihood estimate of parameters of a beta distribution and seasonality booking patterns;
determine an estimated blocking probability for each of the ports on the shipping route due to shipping capacity constraints, upstream bookings and downstream bookings;
determine an estimated probability of booking cancellations for each of the ports on the shipping route;
determine an estimate of how much freight will be loaded onto the shipping vessel for each of the ports on the shipping route;
calculate un-capacitated shipping demand for each of the ports on the shipping route;
and
determine un-capacitated demand per day for each of the ports of the shipping route by convolving the determined un-capacitated demand and the determined estimated customer arrival pattern.

4 more elements

A system for predicting un-capacitated freight demand on a multi-hop shipping route, comprising:

a CPU, a computer readable memory and a computer readable storage medium associated with a computing device;
program instructions to receive daily customer booking data from one or more remote client servers, the booking data including observed carried load data;
program instructions to determine an estimated customer arrival pattern for each port on a shipping route of a shipping vessel by calculating a maximum likelihood estimate of parameters of a beta distribution and seasonality booking patterns;
program instructions to determine an estimated blocking probability for each of the ports on the shipping route due to shipping capacity constraints, upstream bookings and downstream bookings;
program instructions to determine an estimated probability of booking cancellations for each of the ports on the shipping route based on estimated bargaining positions of a customer and a booking company using a non-linear regression method and asymptotic limit argument;
program instructions to determine an estimate of how much freight will be loaded onto the shipping vessel for each of the ports on the shipping route based on observed carried load data;
program instructions to calculate un-capacitated shipping demand for each of the ports on the shipping route;
and
program instructions to determine un-capacitated demand per day for each of the ports of the shipping route by convolving the determined un-capacitated demand and the determined estimated customer arrival pattern;
wherein the program instructions are stored on the computer readable storage medium for execution by the CPU via the computer readable memory.

7 more elements

Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.

Predicting un-capacitated freight demand on a multi-hop shipping route

Life of this patent

Predicting un-capacitated freight demand on a multi-hop shipping route

Life of this patent

Abstract

Claims20