Probabilistic prediction of software failure

A system for probabilistic prediction of system errors, the system comprising:

• a memory;
• and
• a processor in communication with the memory, wherein the system is configured to perform a method comprising:
• reading a system log, the system log comprising a plurality of log entries;
• identifying, in the system log, a log entry indicating a system error;
• identifying, in the system log, a set of symptoms associated with the system error, the set of symptoms including at least one symptom, each symptom associated with a timeframe prior to the system error, the timeframe for each symptom having a range and a distance from the system error;
• determining a variable score for each symptom, the variable score determined according to the symptom's timeframe, consistency of the symptom appearing with the error, and occurrence frequency of the symptom throughout the system log;
• identifying, in the system log, a new occurrence of the set of symptoms;
• determining, in response to identifying the new occurrence of the set of symptoms, that each symptom's variable score exceeds a threshold value for the symptom;
• and
• providing, in response to determining that each symptom's variable score exceeds the threshold value for the symptom, an alert indicating the system error is probable.

A computer program product for probabilistic prediction of system errors, the computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program instructions embodied therewith, wherein the computer readable storage medium is not a transitory signal per se, the program instructions executable by a processor to perform a method comprising:

• reading a system log, the system log comprising a plurality of log entries;
• identifying, in the system log, a log entry indicating a system error;
• identifying, in the system log, a set of symptoms associated with the system error, the set of symptoms including at least one symptom, each symptom associated with a timeframe prior to the system error, the timeframe for each symptom having a range and a distance from the system error;
• determining a variable score for each symptom, the variable score determined according to the symptom's timeframe, consistency of the symptom appearing with the error, and occurrence frequency of the symptom throughout the system log;
• identifying, in the system log, a new occurrence of the set of symptoms;
• determining, in response to identifying the new occurrence of the set of symptoms, that each symptom's variable score exceeds a threshold value for the symptom;
• and
• providing, in response to determining that each symptom's variable score exceeds the threshold value for the symptom, an alert indicating the system error is probable.