Risk assessment for drilling and well completion operations

An apparatus for estimating actual downtimes from drilling operations using a risk transfer model, comprising:

• a non-transitory memory;
• a processor coupled to the non-transitory memory, wherein the processor obtains computer executable instructions stored on a non-transitory memory that when executed by the processor causes the apparatus to perform the following:
• receive a plurality of field parameters that correspond to a plurality of planned runs via an input interface;
• determine a non-productive time risk for each of the planned runs based on the field parameters;
• generate a total non-productive time risk using one or more Monte Carlo trials;
• and
• output the total non-productive time risk via a user interface,
• wherein the number of Monte Carol trials is received via the input interface.

A system comprising:

• an input interface;
• an user interface;
• a processor coupled the input interface and the user interface, wherein the processor receives computer executable instructions stored on a memory that when executed by the processor causes the following:
• receive a plurality of field parameters that correspond to a plurality of planned runs via an input interface;
• determine a non-productive time risk for each of the planned runs based on the field parameters;
• generate a total non-productive time risk using one or more Monte Carlo trials;
• and
• output the total non-productive time risk via a user interface,
• wherein the number of Monte Carol trials is received via the input interface.