Systems and Methods for Lowering the Cost of Health Care

A method for minimizing the overall cost of conducting a health care activity which comprises the steps of:

• defining a population, wherein the population includes a plurality of patients;
• organizing statistical data pertinent to the defined population;
• archiving the statistical data in a database;
• establishing a Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve based on data in the database;
• identifying a pair of alternative pathways for conducting the health care activity, wherein each pathway has a cost associated with action on the pathway;
• testing a patient to obtain a test result for the patient;
• comparing the test result for the patient with an operating point of a binary classifier on the ROC curve to classify the patient according to a bifurcation determined by the binary classifier, wherein the classification is based on a likelihood for an occurrence of an event;
• and
• directing the patient onto a pathway to minimize an overall cost for conducting the activity.

A computer program product for use with a computer to minimize the overall cost of providing health care for a chronic disease which comprises computer program sections for respectively:

• organizing statistical data pertinent to a defined population, wherein the population includes a plurality of patients;
• establishing a Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve based on the statistical data;
• defining a pair of alternative pathways for providing health care, wherein each pathway has a cost associated with action on the pathway;
• and
• comparing a test result for a patient with an operating point of a binary classifier on the ROC curve to classify the patient according to a bifurcation determined by the binary classifier, wherein the classification is based on a likelihood for an occurrence of an event, and the classification is used to direct the patient onto a pathway to minimize an overall cost for providing health care.