Modeling social behavior

A system comprising:

• one or more processing devices;
• and
• one or more non-transitory computer-readable media coupled to the one or more processing devices having instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processing devices, cause the one or more processing devices to perform operations comprising:
• determining a relational event history based on a data set, the relational event history comprising a set of relational events that occurred in time among a set of actors;
• populating data in a probability model based on the relational event history, wherein the probability model is formulated as a series of conditional probabilities that correspond to a set of sequential decisions by an actor for each relational event, the probability model including one or more statistical parameters and corresponding statistics that relate to one or more of senders of relational events, modes of relational events, topics of relational events, or recipients of relational events;
• determining, by one or more processing devices, a baseline communications behavior for the relational event history based on the populated probability model, wherein the baseline comprises a first set of values for the one or more statistical parameters;
• and
• determining departures from the baseline communications behavior within the relational event history.

A non-transitory computer-readable medium embodying one or more instructions thereon which, when executed, cause one or more computer processors to perform steps comprising:

• determining a relational event history based on a data set, the relational event history comprising a set of relational events that occurred in time among a set of actors;
• populating data in a probability model based on the relational event history, wherein the probability model is formulated as a series of conditional probabilities that correspond to a set of sequential decisions by an actor for each relational event, the probability model including one or more statistical parameters and corresponding statistics that relate to one or more of senders of relational events, modes of relational events, topics of relational events, or recipients of relational events;
• determining, by one or more processing devices, a baseline communications behavior for the relational event history based on the populated probability model, wherein the baseline comprises a first set of values for the one or more statistical parameters;
• and
• determining departures from the baseline communications behavior within the relational event history.