Predicting variable identifying device, method, and program

A predicting variable identifying method used by a predicting variable identifying device for identifying, as a predicting variable for a prediction model that predicts an energy indicator value at a point in time that is subject to prediction, a variable indicating the energy indicator value at an interval that goes back an arbitrary retrospection time from the point in time that is subject to the prediction, from among the individual intervals that structure a period, based on periodicity of the energy indicator values that indicate the energy consumption in the facilities, the predicting variable identifying method comprising:

• a storing step of storing at a storing portion a reference profile indicating a correspondence relationship between the individual intervals and ranks to which the magnitudes of the energy indicator values in the respective intervals belong;
• a candidate profile creating step of sequentially rotating by a candidate profile creating portion the correspondence relationship between the intervals and ranks in the reference profile to create, for each different amount of rotation, a respective candidate profile corresponding to the retrospection time that is the applicable amount of rotation;
• a control group classifying step of classifying by a control group classifying portion one interval or a plurality of continuous intervals into one control group, for each individual interval, based on a setting from the outside;
• a rank match checking step of checking by a rank match checking portion, for each candidate profile, whether or not the ranks match between intervals belonging to the same control groups, for the correspondence relationships between the intervals and ranks in the applicable candidate profile;
• and
• a predicting variable identifying step of identifying by a predicting variable identifying portion, as a predicting variable for use in the prediction model, a variable that indicates the energy indicator value in the interval going back by the retrospection time corresponding to the candidate profile, from the point in time that is subject to prediction, for a candidate profile wherein the ranks have been confirmed as matching for all of the control groups.

A computer-readable medium embodying a program for causing a computer to function as each of portions that structure a predicting variable identifying device for identifying, as a predicting variable for a prediction model that predicts an energy indicator value at a point in time that is subject to prediction, a variable indicating the energy indicator value at an interval that goes back an arbitrary retrospection time from the point in time that is subject to the prediction, from among the individual intervals that structure a period, based on periodicity of the energy indicator values that indicate the energy consumption in the facilities, the portions of the predicting variable identifying device comprising:

• a storing portion that stores a reference profile indicating a correspondence relationship between the individual intervals and ranks to which the magnitudes of the energy indicator values in the respective intervals belong;
• a candidate profile creating portion that sequentially rotates the correspondence relationship between the intervals and ranks in the reference profile to create, for each different amount of rotation, a respective candidate profile corresponding to the retrospection time that is the applicable amount of rotation;
• a control group classifying portion that classifies one interval or a plurality of continuous intervals into one control group, for each individual interval, based on a setting from the outside;
• a rank match checking portion that checks, for each candidate profile, whether or not the ranks match between intervals belonging to the same control groups, for the correspondence relationships between the intervals and ranks in the applicable candidate profile;
• and
• a predicting variable identifying portion that identifies, as a predicting variable for use in the prediction model, a variable that indicates the energy indicator value in the interval going back by the retrospection time corresponding to the candidate profile, from the point in time that is subject to prediction, for a candidate profile wherein the ranks have been confirmed as matching for all of the control groups.