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US 2012/0232865 A1Published application
Systems and Methods for the Quantitative Estimate of Production-Forecast Uncertainty
AssigneeLandmark Graphics Corporation
InventorsMarko Maucec, Alvin Stanley Cullick
Life of this patent
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Abstract
Systems and methods for updating posterior geological models by integrating various reservoir data to support dynamic-quantitative data-inversion, stochastic-uncertainty-management and smart reservoir-management.
Claims20
A method for updating posterior geological models, comprising:
- a) computing new geological realizations for a prior geological model using a computer processor;
- b) computing an exact likelihood of objective function using the new geological realizations for the prior geological model or an acceptable number of the new geological realizations for the prior geological model;
- c) defining an initial state for a sequential Monte Carlo chain based on the exact likelihood of objective function;
- d) defining a new sample based on the initial state for a sequential Monte Carlo chain and a random sample from the prior geological model;
- e) computing an approximate likelihood of objective function using the new sample;
- f) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and step e) until the approximate likelihood of objective function meets an acceptance criteria;
- g) computing another exact likelihood of objective function using the new sample if the new sample meets the acceptance criteria;
- h) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and steps e) through g) until the another exact likelihood of objective function meets another acceptance criteria;
- i) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and steps e) through h) until a convergence criteria is met;
- and
- j) storing each new sample that meets the acceptance criteria and the another acceptance criteria, each new sample representing a respective updated posterior geological model for the prior geological model.
8 more elements
A program carrier device for carrying computer executable instructions for updating posterior geological models, the instructions being executable to implement:
- a) computing new geological realizations for a prior geological model;
- b) computing an exact likelihood of objective function using the new geological realizations for the prior geological model or an acceptable number of the new geological realizations for the prior geological model;
- c) defining an initial state for a sequential Monte Carlo chain based on the exact likelihood of objective function;
- d) defining a new sample based on the initial state for a sequential Monte Carlo chain and a random sample from the prior geological model;
- e) computing an approximate likelihood of objective function using the new sample;
- f) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and step e) until the approximate likelihood of objective function meets an acceptance criteria;
- g) computing another exact likelihood of objective function using the new sample if the new sample meets the acceptance criteria;
- h) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and steps c) through g) until the another exact likelihood of objective function meets another acceptance criteria;
- i) repeating step d), based only on another random sample from the prior geological model, and steps e) through h) until a convergence criteria is met;
- and
- i) storing each new sample that meets the acceptance criteria and the another acceptance criteria, each new sample representing a respective updated posterior geological model for the prior geological model.
8 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.