Methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales

A computer implemented method to analyze sales effects of a trade promotion, comprising:

• retrieving product identifiers corresponding to products sold in a retail establishment;
• calculating a plurality of sales volumes, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers;
• identifying a plurality of non-promotional prices, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers;
• calculating weighting factors indicative of effects on performances of the plurality of sales volumes;
• calculating a plurality of first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the non-promotional prices;
• calculating a plurality of second distribution volumes based on the plurality of first distribution volumes and the trade promotion, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion;
• and
• generating a report including the plurality of second distribution volumes.

An apparatus to determine a pantry loading effect, comprising:

• a base driver data generator to calculate a plurality of decremental effect factors, each factor corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks during a promotion condition;
• a scoring processor to calculate a plurality of decremental effect terms by multiplying a factor coefficient by a corresponding one of the plurality of decremental effect factors, and to calculate a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms;
• and
• an incremental driver data generator to calculate a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term.

An article of manufacture storing machine accessible instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to:

• determine a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of the plurality of weeks;
• determine a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors;
• determine a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms;
• determine a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term;
• and
• generate a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.