Method and System for Predicting Causes of Network Service Outages Using Time Domain Correlation

A method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service, the method comprising:

• measuring usage amounts of the service during a period of the service outage and a second period following the service outage;
• comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs;
• and
• determining a level of loss of service due to the service outage based on the comparison.

A computer readable medium storing program code which, when executed, causes a computer to perform a method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service over a first period of time, the method comprising:

• measuring service usage over time;
• defining a cost of outage time window comprising the first time period and a second time period;
• and
• computing a cost of outage as the difference between the measured level of service usage during the cost of outage time window with a level of usage in a comparison window, the comparison window being substantially equal in time to the cost of outage time window and reflecting a similar period of service activity as the cost of outage time window without having a service outage.

A method for predicting a cost of an outage of a service, the method comprising:

• measuring time duration for and service usage during the outage;
• comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs, to thereby determine a usage loss amount;
• and
• computing a predicted cost of the outage based at least upon a cost component, the cost component comprising a function of the measured time of the outage and measured usage loss amount.

A network monitoring system comprising:

• a usage meter for measuring usage of a service on the network;
• an event detector for detecting network events and times at which the network events occur;
• a probable cause engine, coupled to receive data from the usage meter and the event detector, for determining which of the network events detected by the event detector is the most likely cause of a service outage based at least in part of the relations of the detected network event times to a service change time window, the service change time window encompassing at least part of an occurrence of the service outage in the network;
• and
• a costing engine, coupled to receive data from the usage meter, for predicting the cost of the service outage.

Computer readable media comprising program code that, when executed by a programmable microprocessor, causes the programmable microprocessor to execute a method for quantifying the effect of an outage in a service, the method comprising:

• measuring usage amount of the service during a period of the service outage and a second period following the service outage;
• comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for a similar period of time where no service outage occurs;
• and
• determining a level of loss of service due to the service outage based on the comparison.

Computer readable media comprising program code that, when executed by a programmable microprocessor, causes the programmable microprocessor to execute a method for predicting a cost of an outage of a service, the method comprising:

• measuring time duration for and service usage during the outage;
• comparing the measured usage amounts to normal usage amounts measured under similar service conditions for s similar period of time where no service outage occurs, to thereby determine a usage loss amount;
• and
• computing a predicted cost of the outage based at least upon a cost component. the cost component comprising a function of the measured time of the outage and measured usage loss amount.