Failure prediction system, failure prediction device, and failure prediction method

A failure prediction method comprising:

• acquiring environmental information sensed by an optical fiber that is installed along a target object, and detects the environmental information of the target object;
• classifying an event occurring at each position of the target object being indicated by the environmental information, based on an event classification condition, for each type;
• inputting a history on the classified event to a failure model acquired by modeling a physical mechanism by which the target object is led to a function failure, and associated with the type of the event;
• calculating each failure occurrence risk by the mechanism in the target object;
• and
• accumulating a result of the calculation in a designated section, and outputting the accumulated result as a risk or availability.

A failure prediction device comprising:

• a sensing function unit that acquires environmental information sensed by an optical fiber that is installed along a target object, and detects the environmental information of the target object;
• an event classification function unit that classifies an event occurring at each position of the target object being indicated by the environmental information, based on an event classification condition, for each type;
• and
• a failure occurrence risk calculation unit including in advance one or more failure models acquired by modeling a physical mechanism by which the target object is led to a function failure, wherein
• a failure occurrence risk calculation unit inputs a history on the classified event to the failure model associated with the type of the event, calculates each failure occurrence risk by the mechanism in the target object, accumulates a result of the calculation in a designated section, and outputs the accumulated result as a risk or availability.