Adaptive persistence forecasting for control of distributed energy resources

A system comprising:

• a processor,
• a memory storage;
• and
• instructions for adaptive persistence forecasting stored on the memory storage that when executed by the processor, direct the system to:
• receive historical load values for a site comprising at least one component that consumes energy;
• receive historical temperature values corresponding to dates of the historical load values;
• evaluate the historical load values and the historical temperature values to determine a correlation coefficient;
• determine that there exists at least a threshold correlation between a load activity and temperature for the historical load values and the historical temperature values based on the correlation coefficient;
• normalize the historical load values based on a set temperature;
• apply an adaptive seasonal persistence model to the normalized historical load values to output a forecast;
• receive a temperature prediction;
• generate a correction term using the temperature prediction and a correlation relationship between the historical load values and the historical temperature values identified when evaluating the historical load values and the historical temperature values;
• apply the correction term to the forecast;
• and
• provide the forecast for use in controlling energy resources at the site;
• and
• control instructions stored on the memory storage that when executed by the processor, direct the system to:
• receive the forecast;
• and
• control the energy resources using the forecast.