Bolus calculator with probabilistic carbohydrate measurements

A method of using a bolus calculator to account for an uncertainty of a carbohydrate estimate to reduce a risk of hyperglycemia comprising:

• providing the bolus calculator containing therewithin a processor that when activated executes an algorithm defining pre-set values for:
• a threshold percentage defining a probability of hyperglycemia (Phyper);
• and
• a hyperglycemia threshold (Thyper);
• calculating, by the bolus calculator, a measure defining the uncertainty of the carbohydrate estimate (c) as a standard deviation (σc) based on at least (i) an assessment of an ability of a user to count carbohydrates from a test, (ii) a history of the user, (iii) or combination thereof;
• providing to the bolus calculator the carbohydrate estimate;
• activating the processor to execute the algorithm to use the pre-set values, the carbohydrate estimate and the measure defining the uncertainty of the carbohydrate estimate to:
• determine the probability of hyperglycemia if the carbohydrate estimate has underestimated the carbohydrate content and therefore the standard meal insulin bolus has been underestimated and thus should be adjusted to reduce the risk of hyperglycemia;
• alerting the user when the carbohydrate estimate has been underestimated recommending a post-prandial glucose measurement;
• and
• administering the adjusted corresponding meal insulin bolus through a therapy delivery device operatively coupled to the bolus calculator to the user such that the administered adjusted corresponding meal insulin bolus affects a blood glucose value of the user to reduce the risk of hyperglycemia.

A bolus calculator to account for an uncertainty of a carbohydrate estimate to reduce a risk of hypoglycemia comprising:

• a processor that when activated is configured to execute an algorithm defining pre-set values for:
• a first threshold percentage defining a probability of hypoglycemia (Phypo);
• and
• a hypoglycemia threshold (Thypo);
• the processor is configured, upon receipt by the bolus calculator of the carbohydrate estimate, to:
• calculate a measure defining the uncertainty of the carbohydrate estimate (c) as a standard deviation (σc) based on at least an assessment of an ability of a user to count carbohydrates from a test, a history of the user, or combination thereof;
• determine the probability of hypoglycemia if the carbohydrate estimate has overestimated the carbohydrate content and therefore a standard meal insulin bolus has been overestimated and thus should be adjusted to reduce the risk of hypoglycemia in which the processor:
• calculate the standard meal insulin bolus (Imeal) utilizing the carbohydrate estimate and a carbohydrate ratio of the user;
• calculate, using the carbohydrate estimate, the standard deviation, and a parameter on a normal cumulative distribution, a carbohydrate level (CPhypo) representative of a carbohydrate estimate at a percentage defined by Phypo as the first threshold percentage defining the probability of hypoglycemia;
• calculate a hypoglycemia-averse insulin bolus (Ihypo(x)%) using an insulin sensitivity factor of the user, the hypoglycemia threshold and the calculated carbohydrate level;
• compare the standard meal insulin bolus with the hypoglycemia-averse insulin bolus;
• select the minimum of the standard meal insulin bolus and the hypoglycemia-averse insulin bolus thereby accounting for the risk of hypoglycemia;
• administer the selected minimum bolus through a therapy delivery device operatively coupled to the bolus calculator to the user such that the administered selected minimum bolus affects a blood glucose value of the user to reduce the risk of hypoglycemia.

A bolus calculator to account for an uncertainty of a carbohydrate estimate to reduce and a risk of hyperglycemia comprising:

• a processor that when activated is configured to execute an algorithm defining pre-set values for:
• a threshold percentage defining a probability of hyperglycemia (Phyper);
• and
• a hyperglycemia threshold (Thyper);
• the processor is configured, upon receipt by the bolus calculator of the carbohydrate estimate, to:
• calculate a measure defining the uncertainty of the carbohydrate estimate (c) as a standard deviation (σc) based on at least an assessment of an ability of a user to count carbohydrates from a test, a history of the user, or combination thereof;
• determine the probability of hyperglycemia if the carbohydrate estimate has underestimated the carbohydrate content and therefore a standard meal insulin bolus has been underestimated and thus should be adjusted to reduce the risk of hyperglycemia in which the processor:
• calculate, using the carbohydrate estimate, the standard deviation, and a parameter on a normal cumulative distribution, a carbohydrate level (CPhyper) representative of a carbohydrate estimate at a percentage defined by Phyper as the threshold percentage defining the probability of hyperglycemia;
• calculate, using the calculated carbohydrate level, a user insulin sensitivity factor, and a target glucose level, a value representing a post-prandial glucose estimate;
• compare the value to the hyperglycemia threshold;
• provide an alert to the user instructing the user to take a post-prandial glucose measurement when the value is greater than the hyperglycemia threshold, thereby accounting for the risk of hyperglycemia, and
• administer the adjusted corresponding meal insulin bolus through a therapy delivery device operatively coupled to the bolus calculator to the user such that the administered adjusted corresponding meal insulin bolus affects a blood glucose value of the user to reduce the risk of hyperglycemia.