Flying path prediction method, ground system, flying object's flying path model, flying path prediction device, flying object tracking system, flying object coping system, unified data library, surveillance satellite, and satellite constellation

A flying path prediction method comprising:

• predicting a flying path of a flying object by analyzing, at a ground system, flying object surveillance information acquired by a surveillance satellite in a satellite constellation including a plurality of surveillance satellites each including an infrared surveillance device, wherein
• the ground system includes a database having stored therein a plurality of flying path models being a plurality of flying paths modeled for the flying object, including launch position coordinates, a flying direction, a time-series flying distance from a launch to an impact, and a flying altitude profile of the flying object, and
• the ground system
• analyzes flying object surveillance information including
• an elapsed time after launch detection measured by the infrared surveillance device included in a subsequent surveillance satellite by using the plurality of flying path models by taking launch detection information of the flying object detected by the infrared surveillance device of the surveillance satellite as a starting point,
• a flying distance of the flying object, and
• a flying altitude of the flying object,
• the flying object surveillance information being measured by the subsequent surveillance satellite, and excludes a nonconforming flying path model from among the plurality of flying path models,
• analyzes the flying object surveillance information measured by a next subsequent surveillance satellite, thereby repeatedly performing process of excluding a nonconforming flying path model from among the plurality of flying path models,
• determines a flying path model not excluded to be left as a provisional flying path prediction model, and
• based on flying object surveillance information measured by a plurality of subsequent surveillance satellites subsequent to the surveillance satellite detecting the launch detection information of the flying object, corrects a deviation amount from the provisional flying path prediction model to predict a flying path to the impact of the flying object.