System and methods for transitioning patient care from signal based monitoring to risk based monitoring

A computer program product for use on a computer for risk-based monitoring of a patient, the computer program product comprising a tangible, non-transitory computer readable medium having computer-readable program code thereon, the computer-readable program code comprising:

• program code for causing the computer to acquire, from a plurality of physiological sensors including at least a heart rate sensor and an SpO2 sensor, the plurality of sensors physically attached to a patient, data associated with a plurality of internal state variables each describing a parameter physiologically relevant to one of a treatment and a condition of the patient, wherein some of the data associated with the plurality of the internal state variables is intermittent or aperiodic;
• program code for storing, in a computer accessible memory, the acquired data associated with the plurality of the internal state variables;
• program code for generating predicted probability density functions for the plurality of the internal state variables at time step tk;
• program code for generating predicted probability density functions for the plurality of the internal state variables at previous time step tk−1, by evolving backwards from the predicted probability density functions at time step tk to the time step tk−1;
• program code for generating posterior probability density functions for the internal state variables at the previous time step tk−1;
• program code for determining, based on the generated posterior probability density functions for the internal state variables for the time step tk−1, a set of possible states at the previous time step tk−1 of a hidden internal state variable;
• program code for generating, based on the set of possible states at the previous time step of tk−1 of the hidden internal state variable, probabilities of possible patient states, wherein the possible patient states cannot be directly measured;
• program code for causing display, on a display device, of a plurality of graphical indicators, each of the plurality of graphical indicators corresponding to one possible patient state of the set of possible patient states, each of the plurality of graphical indicators graphically identifying the probability that the patient is in a corresponding patient state at a given point in a range of time, the plurality of graphical indicators configured to indicate a hazard level;
• and
• program code for generating data to cause display, on the display device, of a timeline controller configured to allow a user to dynamically select a plurality of points in time over the range of time, the graphical indicators changing dynamically in response to a specification by the user of one of the plurality of points in time to display the evolution of the one possible patient state of the set of possible patient states over the range of time.

A system for monitoring of a patient, the system comprising:

• a computer configured to acquire, from a plurality of sensors connected with the patient including a heart rate sensor and an SpO2 sensor, physiological data;
• the computer further configured to:
• continuously estimate a clinical trajectory for the patient, the patient's clinical trajectory being described by probabilities of possible patient states using data acquired at a subsequent time step tk+1 from at least the heart rate sensor and the SpO2 sensor, and posterior predicted probability density functions from a previous time step tk, by:
• generating predicted probability density functions of internal state variables for the time step tk+1, each of the internal state variables describing a parameter physiologically relevant to at least one of a treatment and a condition of said patient at time step tk+1, wherein the predicted probability density functions are calculated using posterior estimated probability density functions for each of the internal state variables from a preceding time step tk;
• generating posterior predicted probability density functions for the plurality of the internal state variables for the time step tk+1 at least by computing conditional probability density functions of the data acquired at a time step tk+1 given the internal state variables and the predicted probability density functions of internal state variables;
• and
• determining, based on the generated posterior predicted probability density functions for the plurality of the internal state variables for the time step tk+1, a set of possible states of a hidden internal state variable;
• generating, based on the set of possible states of the hidden internal state variable, probabilities of possible patient states, wherein the possible patient states cannot be directly measured;
• and
• generate data to cause display of a clinical trajectory of the patient on a graphical user interface, the user interface being configured to display the probabilities of possible patient states as function of a plurality of time steps.