Golf play outcome simulation modeling system

A system for updating a golf tournament simulation, the system comprising:

• an update processor programmed to execute update operations with respect to a golf tournament simulation following start of actual play in the golf;
• a memory storing instructions;
• a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform the programmed operations of the update processor, the operations comprising:
• updating the tournament simulation of the golf tournament in real time by:
• substituting actual hole scores for predicted hole scores as players complete holes;
• updating predicted round scores, accounting for the substituted actual holes scores;
• generating updated predicted tournament scores for all competing players from the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds;
• establishing an updated cutline from the updated predicted round scores for pre-cut rounds;
• and
• including in the updated predicted tournament scores predicted round scores for post-cut rounds to scores of players updated to make cut and excluding predicted round scores for post-cut rounds to scores of plays updated to not make cut.

A method of simulating a golf event, the method comprising:

• executing a round simulation for each participating player in a golf event with a golf tournament simulation modeling system programed to execute simulations of a golf tournament, the golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising memory storing instructions and a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform programmed operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system, the operations comprising:
• generating a predicted hole score for each hole of a golf round comprising, for each hole:
• calculating, with a hole event probability generator, a hole event probability for each of one or more hole events assigned to a hole of a golf round;
• generating, with a hole event outcome generator, a predicted hole event outcome for each hole event using the calculated event probability for the respective hole event as weight;
• and
• generating, with a hole score generator, the predicted hole score hole using a score probability distribution corresponding to the one or more or more predicted hole outcomes generated for the hole;
• generating, with a prediction engine, a predicted round score from the predicted hole scores;
• and
• applying, with a modification engine, a score differential adjustment to a predicted hole score or predicted round score of a player based on a historical situational differential in scoring for the player with respect to a situation applicable to the round or tournament being simulated.