Method and device for forecasting electric load, and electronic device

A device for forecasting an electric load, comprising:

• an acquisition module configured to acquire historical load data prior to a forecast date, wherein the historical load data comprises load values at a plurality of times;
• a sequence generation module configured to generate a load sequence based on the historical load data;
• a mode decomposition module configured to perform variational mode decomposition on the load sequence, to obtain a plurality of intrinsic mode components and a residual that are corresponding to the load sequence;
• and
• a forecast module configured to input the plurality of intrinsic mode components and the residual into respective forecasting models, to determine a load value on the forecast date based on forecasting results of all the forecasting models, and control an integrated energy management system to start or stop on the forecast date based on the load value on the forecast date wherein the sequence generation module comprises:
• a conversion unit configured to convert the historical load data into a historical load sequence;
• and
• a denoising unit configured to denoise the historical load sequence to generate the load sequence, wherein the denoising unit is configured to, in order to denoise the historical load sequence to generate the load sequence, perform n rounds of decomposition on a target sequence until a cycle ends, wherein the target sequence of the first round is the historical load sequence, and n is the number of the intrinsic mode components;
• and generate the load sequence by combining a low-frequency sequence Ln in a last round and high-frequency sequences newly generated in all the rounds, wherein an i-th round of decomposition comprises:
• decomposing a target sequence Li-1 of the i-th round into a low-frequency sequence Li and a high-frequency sequence Hi, wherein the low-frequency sequence Li is a low-frequency component of the target sequence Li-1, and the high-frequency sequence Hi is a high-frequency component of the target sequence Li-1;
• retaining a part of the high-frequency sequence Hi that is not smaller than a preset threshold, and newly generating a high-frequency sequence H′i;
• and determining the low-frequency sequence Li of the i-th round as the target sequence in a next round until the cycle ends.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, causes the processor to implement:

• acquiring historical load data prior to a forecast date, wherein the historical load data comprises load values at a plurality of times;
• generating a load sequence based on the historical load data;
• performing variational mode decomposition on the load sequence, to obtain a plurality of intrinsic mode components and a residual that are corresponding to the load sequence;
• inputting the plurality of intrinsic mode components and the residual into respective forecasting models, and determining a load value on the forecast date based on forecasting results of all the forecasting models;
• and
• controlling an integrated energy management system to start or stop on the forecast date based on the load value on the forecast date;
• wherein the generating the load sequence based on the historical load data comprises:
• converting the historical load data into a historical load sequence;
• and
• denoising the historical load sequence to generate the load sequence, wherein the denoising the historical load sequence to generate the load sequence comprises:
• performing n rounds of decomposition on a target sequence until a cycle ends, wherein the target sequence of a first round is the historical load sequence, and n is the number of the intrinsic mode components;
• and
• generating the load sequence by combining a low-frequency sequence Ln in a last round and high-frequency sequences newly generated in all the n rounds, wherein an i-th round of decomposition comprises:
• decomposing a target sequence Li-1 of the i-th round into a low-frequency sequence Li and a high-frequency sequence Hi, wherein the low-frequency sequence Li is a low-frequency component of the target sequence Li-1, and the high-frequency sequence Hi is a high-frequency component of the target sequence Li-1;
• retaining a part of the high-frequency sequence Hi that is not smaller than a preset threshold, and newly generating a high-frequency sequence H′i;
• and determining the low-frequency sequence Li of the i-th round as the target sequence in a next round until the cycle ends.