Prediction device, prediction method, and prediction program

A computer-implemented method for predicting data comprising:

• predicting first prediction values for target ranges of respective models, based on respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data including observation values for respective observation locations and respective observation times observed for a given time period and the respective models for predicting variations of the pieces of spatio-temporal observation data for the respective target ranges defined for at least one of an observation location or a period;
• extracting, based on residuals between the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data being observed and the models corresponding to the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data based on the pieces of spatio-temporal observation data and the models, the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data with residuals based on a threshold value, as spatio-temporal residual data;
• predicting, based on the spatio-temporal residual data, second prediction values for the target ranges corresponding to the spatio-temporal residual data in accordance with a predetermined prediction technique;
• synthesizing the first prediction values and the second prediction values to generate prediction values;
• and
• outputting the prediction values.

A computer-readable non-transitory recording medium storing computer-executable program instructions that when executed by a processor cause a computer system to execute operations comprising:

• predicting first prediction values for target ranges of respective models, based on respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data including observation values for respective observation locations and respective observation times observed for a given time period and the respective models for predicting variations of the pieces of spatio-temporal observation data for the respective target ranges defined for at least one of an observation location or a period;
• extracting, based on residuals between the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data being observed and the models corresponding to the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data based on the pieces of spatio-temporal observation data and the models, the respective pieces of spatio-temporal observation data with residuals based on a threshold value, as spatio-temporal residual data;
• predicting, based on the spatio-temporal residual data, second prediction values for the target ranges corresponding to the spatio-temporal residual data in accordance with a predetermined prediction technique;
• synthesizing the first prediction values and the second prediction values to generate prediction values;
• and
• outputting the prediction values.