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US 12,001,180 B2Granted
Condition-based method for malfunction prediction
AssigneeHitachi Energy Ltd
InventorsPawel Stano, Frank Kirschnick
Life of this patent
Estimating the term…
Abstract
To perform a prognostic health analysis for an asset (11-13), a stochastic simulation is performed to obtain a prognosis for the evolution of the asset health state. The prognosis is updated based on sensor measurements using a particle filter.
Claims21
A method, the method being performed by at least one integrated circuit and comprising:
- determining a future evolution of an asset health state of an asset, the asset being a power transformer, a distributed energy resource, or a power generator, wherein determining the future evolution of the asset health state of the asset comprises iteratively repeating:
- performing a stochastic simulation to obtain a prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, wherein the stochastic simulation uses a model having a discrete state space;
- after performing the stochastic simulation to obtain the prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, reading sensor measurements from one or more sensors;
- and
- updating the prognosis based on the read sensor measurements using a particle filter;
- and
- generating output based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state;
- and
- automatically performing an action, wherein the action comprises at least one of scheduling a down-time of the asset based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling maintenance work based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling replacement work based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, or changing maintenance intervals based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state,
- wherein the stochastic simulation uses a model having a discrete state space, wherein updating the prognosis comprises:
- computing, based on the prognosis, an expectation value for an observable quantity included in the sensor measurements;
- performing a comparison of the expectation value to the observable quantity included in the sensor measurements;
- and
- computing an updated initial state for a subsequent iteration of the stochastic simulation based on the comparison.
11 more elements
A method of operating and/or maintaining an asset, the asset being a power transformer, a distributed energy resource, or a power generator, the method comprising:
- determining a future evolution of an asset health state of the asset, comprising iteratively repeating:
- performing a stochastic simulation to obtain a prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, wherein the stochastic simulation uses a model having a discrete state space;
- after performing the stochastic simulation to obtain the prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, reading sensor measurements from one or more sensors;
- updating the prognosis based on the read sensor measurements using particle filter;
- reading the sensor measurements in a cyclic manner and synchronously with completion of a plurality of simulation steps of the stochastic simulation;
- and
- generating output based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state;
- and
- automatically performing an action, wherein the action comprises at least one of scheduling a down-time of the asset based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling maintenance work based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling replacement work based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state, or changing maintenance intervals based on the determined future evolution of the asset health state.
6 more elements
A computing system operative to perform a prognostic health analysis for an asset, the asset being a power transformer, a distributed energy resource, or a power generator, the computing system comprising at least one integrated circuit operative to:
- compute a future evolution of an asset health state of the asset by iteratively repeating:
- performing a stochastic simulation to obtain a prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, wherein the stochastic simulation uses a model having a discrete state space,
- after performing the stochastic simulation to obtain the prognosis for the future evolution of the asset health state, reading sensor measurements from one or more sensors,
- updating the prognosis based on the read sensor measurements using a particle filter;
- and
- reading the sensor measurements in a cyclic manner and synchronously with completion of a plurality of simulation steps of the stochastic simulation;
- control generation of output based on the future evolution of the asset health state;
- and
- perform an action, wherein the action comprises at least one of scheduling a down-time of the asset based on the computed future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling maintenance work based on the computed future evolution of the asset health state, scheduling replacement work based on the computed future evolution of the asset health state, or changing maintenance intervals based on the computed future evolution of the asset health state.
6 more elements
Dependencies are inferred from the claim text.