Estimating trip duration based on vehicle reroute probabilities

A system comprising:

• one or more processors;
• and
• a computer-readable medium comprising instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to:
• identify a route between a first map location and a second map location, the route comprising one or more vehicle maneuvers;
• based on one or more capabilities of an AV and a respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers, determining a reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver from the one or more vehicle maneuvers;
• based on the reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver, determine an estimated time of arrival (ETA) by the AV to the second map location;
• and
• send the ETA to a computing device associated with a user.

A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium comprising instructions stored thereon which, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to:

• identify a route between a first map location and a second map location, the route comprising one or more vehicle maneuvers;
• based on one or more capabilities of an the AV and a respective estimated likelihood of success or failure of each vehicle maneuver of the one or more vehicle maneuvers, determining a reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver from the one or more vehicle maneuvers;
• based on the reroute likelihood associated with each vehicle maneuver, determining an estimated time of arrival (ETA) by the AV to the second map location;
• and
• send the ETA to a computing device associated with a user.