Assessment of cellular signaling pathway activity using probabilistic modeling of target gene expression

A method for correcting abnormal operation of at least one cellular signaling pathway(s) in a subject suffering from cancer, comprising:

• selecting, based on determined abnormal operation of at least one cellular signaling pathway(s), a specific treatment configured to remedy the determined abnormal operation of the at least one cellular signaling pathway(s), wherein the selected specific treatment is an agonist of the cellular signaling pathway that is Hedgehog, and wherein the abnormal operation of the at least one cellular signaling pathway(s) is determined by:
• measuring expression levels of at least three mRNA direct target genes of each of the at least one cellular signaling pathway(s) in a sample isolated from the subject;
• determining the activity of the cellular signaling pathway(s) based on the measured expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes;
• calculating, using a processing circuit, activity of the cellular signaling pathway(s) in the sample by evaluating at least a portion of a probabilistic model of the cellular signaling pathway(s), the probabilistic model representing the cellular signaling pathway(s) for a set of inputs including at least the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the cellular signaling pathway(s);
• determining a level in the sample of at least one transcription factor (TF) element, the at least one TF element controlling transcription of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the cellular signaling pathway(s), and the determining being based at least in part on conditional probabilities relating the at least one TF element and the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the cellular signaling pathway(s);
• determining the activity of the cellular signaling pathway(s) based on the determined level in the sample of the at least one TF element;
• determining that the Hedgehog cellular signaling pathway is operating abnormally in the subject based on the determined activity of the cellular signaling pathway(s), wherein the abnormal operation of the Hedgehog cellular signaling pathway is inactive;
• and
• administering the selected Hedgehog cellular signaling pathway agonist to the subject suffering from cancer;
• wherein the cellular signaling pathway(s) comprise(s) a Wnt pathway, an ER pathway, an AR pathway and/or a Hedgehog pathway;
• wherein the measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the cellular signaling pathway(s) comprises:
• measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Wnt pathway selected from target genes consisting of:
• KIAA1199, AXIN2, RNF43, TBX3, TDGF1, SOX9, ASCL2, IL8, SP5, ZNRF3, KLF6, CCND1, DEFA6, and FZD7, and/or measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the ER pathway selected from target genes consisting of:
• CDH26, SGK3, PGR, GREB1, CA12, XBP1, CELSR2, WISP2, DSCAM, ERBB2, CTSD, TFF1, and NRIP 1,
• and/or
• measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway selected from target genes of the Hedgehog pathway consisting of:
• GLI1, PTCH1, PTCH2, IGFBP6, SPP1, CCND2, FST, FOXL1, CFLAR, TSC22D1, RAB34, S100A9, S100A7, MYCN, FOXM1, GLI3, TCEA2, FYN, and CTSL1,
• and/or
• measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the AR pathway selected from target genes consisting of:
• KLK2, PMEPA1, TMPRSS2, NKX3-1, ABCC4, KLK3, FKBPS, ELL2, UGT2B15, DHCR24, PPAP2A, NDRG1, LRIG1, CREB3L4, LCP1, GUCY1A3, AR, and EAF2.

A method for correcting abnormal operation of a Hedgehog pathway in a subject suffering from cancer, comprising:

• selecting a Hedgehog pathway agonist to treat the subject suffering from cancer based on determined abnormal operation of the Hedgehog pathway, wherein the abnormal operation of the Hedgehog pathway is determined by:
• measuring expression levels of at least three mRNA direct target genes of each of the Hedgehog pathway genes in a sample isolated from the subject;
• determining the activity of the Hedgehog pathway based on the measured expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes;
• calculating, using a processing circuit, activity of the Hedgehog pathway in the sample by evaluating at least a portion of a probabilistic model of the Hedgehog pathway, the probabilistic model representing the Hedgehog pathway for a set of inputs including at least the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway;
• determining a level in the sample of at least one transcription factor (TF) element, the at least one TF element controlling transcription of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway, and the determining being based at least in part on conditional probabilities relating the at least one TF element and the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway;
• determining the activity of the Hedgehog pathway based on the determined level in the sample of the at least one TF element;
• determining that the Hedgehog pathway is operating abnormally in the subject based on the determined activity of the Hedgehog pathway, wherein the abnormal operation of the Hedgehog pathway is inactive;
• and
• administering the selected Hedgehog pathway agonist to the subject suffering from cancer;
• wherein the measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway comprises at least measuring the expression levels of the at least three mRNA direct target genes of the Hedgehog pathway selected from target genes of the Hedgehog pathway consisting of:
• GLI1, PTCH1, PTCH2, IGFBP6, SPP1, CCND2, FST, FOXL1, CFLAR, TSC22D1, RAB34, S100A9, S100A7, MYCN, FOXM1, GLI3, TCEA2, FYN, and CTSL1.