Method and system for estimating energy generation based on solar irradiance forecasting

A system for estimating energy generated by a solar system in a predetermined geographic area, the system comprising:

• non-transitory computer readable media having computer-executable modules comprising:
• a first module configured to retrieve, at a predetermined time instant, measured values of at least one weather parameter and of solar irradiance in said predetermined geographic area, said measured values being related to a first time slot before said predetermined time instant, and to retrieve forecasted values of said at least one weather parameter in said predetermined geographic area, said forecasted values being forecasted for a second time slot after said predetermined time instant;
• a second module configured to estimate, based on an auto-regression analysis of the measured values, a relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance, wherein said second module comprises an encoder network of a sequence-to-sequence neural network, said encoder network providing encoded measured values indicative of said relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance;
• a third module configured to forecast a solar irradiance in said second time slot based on a regression analysis of said relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance of said forecasted values, wherein said third module comprises a decoder network of the sequence-to-sequence neural network, the decoder network providing solar irradiance forecasting according to said encoded measured values and said forecasted values;
• and
• a fourth module configured to estimate energy generated by the solar system in said second time slot according to the forecasted solar irradiance and at least one solar system parameter.

A system for estimating energy generated by a solar system in a predetermined geographic area, the system comprising:

• a processor;
• and
• non-transitory computer readable media having instructions stored thereon, wherein the instructions, when executed by the processor, cause the system to:
• retrieve, at a predetermined time instant, measured values of at least one weather parameter and of solar irradiance in said predetermined geographic area, said measured values being related to a first time slot before said predetermined time instant;
• retrieve forecasted values of said at least one weather parameter in said predetermined geographic area, said forecasted values being forecasted for a second time slot after said predetermined time instant;
• estimate, based on an auto-regression analysis of the measured values, a relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance, wherein said estimating comprises providing the measured values of the at least one weather parameter and of the solar irradiance to an encoder network of a sequence-to-sequence neural network, to obtain encoded measured values indicative of said relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance;
• forecast a solar irradiance in said second time slot based on a regression analysis of said relationship between the at least one weather parameter and the solar irradiance of said forecasted values, wherein said forecasting comprises providing said encoded measured values and said forecasted values to a decoder network of the sequence-to-sequence neural network;
• and
• estimate energy generated by the solar system in said second time slot according to the forecasted solar irradiance and at least one solar system parameter.