Progression analytics system

A computer-implemented method of evaluating outcomes, comprising:

• identifying a patient care-related outcome of interest
• extracting electronic clinical data associated with historical healthcare encounters for a plurality of patients, by:
• including in the plurality of patients a first subset of patients that experienced an outcome of interest;
• and
• including in the plurality of patients a second subset of patients that did not experience the outcome of interest;
• deriving at least one model based upon model variables that have a clinical and/or statistical significance to the outcome of interest, the at least one model selected from the group consisting of:
• an outcome likelihood model that estimates a likelihood of the outcome of interest using a group of likelihood variables, and
• a consequence likelihood model that estimates consequences associated with the outcome of interest using a group of consequence variables;
• determining patient groups among the plurality of patients for which electronic clinical data is extracted by:
• grouping together those patients having a similar data pattern present in their corresponding extracted electronic clinical data based upon at least one model variable;
• and
• selecting the data pattern such that the defined patient groups differentiate from one another in terms of the likelihood of the outcome of interest, or consequences associated with the outcome of interest, or both, based upon clinical data associated with a value of the at least one model variable;
• deriving a hypothesized etiological explanation for why one or more patient groups have different likelihoods of the outcome of interest, or consequences associated with the outcome of interest, or both, when compared to other defined patient groups, by comparing defined patient groups and identifying different likelihoods of the outcome of interest;
• identifying at least one physiological process associated with the derived hypothesized etiological explanation;
• and
• outputting a clinical intervention based upon the identified physiological process for a select patient group wherein the identified clinical intervention is directed to decrease the likelihood of the adverse outcome of interest, or decrease the consequences of the adverse outcome of interest, or both, for the select patient group, wherein an effectiveness of the clinical intervention has been verified by:
• generating a patient group that follows a trajectory corresponding to the selected clinical intervention;
• determining a likelihood of the outcome of interest for the generated patient group;
• and
• modifying the clinical intervention based upon the determined likelihood of outcome of interest for the generated patient group.