Forecasting national crop yield during the growing season using weather indices

A computer-implemented method comprising:

• receiving, by a server computer system, one or more agricultural data records that represent observed agricultural data points for a specific geo-location at a specific time;
• calculating, by the server computer system, weather index values from the one or more agricultural data records to generate one or more geo-specific weather indices for specific geo-locations over specified periods of time;
• aggregating, by the server computer system, the one or more geo-specific weather indices to generate one or more aggregated weather indices that represent specific geographic areas, from a subset of the one or more geo-specific weather indices;
• selecting, by the server computer system, representative features from the one or more aggregated weather indices and creating, for each specific geographic area, a covariate matrix in computer memory comprising the representative features selected from the one or more aggregated weather indices;
• determining, by the server computer system, a geographic area specific crop yield for a specific year by using a linear regression model to calculate the geographic area specific crop yield from the covariate matrix that represents the geographic area for that specific year;
• determining, by the server computer system, a national crop yield for the specific year by calculating a sum of the geographic area specific crop yields for the specific year, nationally adjusted using national yield adjustment instructions in the server computer system;
• and
• based on the national crop yield for the specific year, modifying an operating parameter of an agricultural equipment used for treatment of one or more fields.