Energy consumption modeling

A non-transitory computer readable medium having computer readable instructions stored thereon that are executable by a processor to:

• generate a model to predict a future state of a device and a duration of the future state of the device by predicting a transition between a current state of the device and the future state of the device using a probability distribution for a duration of the current state of the device and an amount of time already spent by the device in the current state;
• predict future energy consumption data of the device using energy consumption data of the device and the generated model;
• compare the energy consumption data to the predicted future energy consumption data;
• determine a fault of the device in response to the energy consumption data being out of step from the predicted future energy consumption data based on the duration of the current state of the device being longer or shorter than the duration of the predicted future state of the device;
• and
• generate a notification in response to the fault of the device being detected.

A method for operating an energy consumption modeling system, comprising:

• generating, by a controller, a model to predict a future state of a device and a duration of the future state of the device by predicting a transition between a current state of the device and a future state of the device using a probability distribution for a duration of the current state of the device and an amount of time already spent by the device in the current state;
• predicting, by the controller, future energy consumption data of the device using energy consumption data of the device and the generated model;
• comparing, by the controller, the energy consumption data to the predicted future energy consumption data;
• detecting, by the controller based on the comparison:
• a fault of the device in response to the energy consumption data being out of step from the predicted future energy consumption data based on the duration of the current state of the device being longer or shorter than the duration of the predicted future state of the device;
• and
• that no fault of the device exists in response to the energy consumption data being the same as the predicted future energy consumption data;
• and
• generating, by the controller, a notification in response to detecting the fault of the device.