Fluid migration pathway determination

A method of managing hydrocarbon extraction, comprising:

• carrying out seismic testing by imparting energy to the earth from sources at one or more source locations and measuring return energy to receivers at surface receiver locations at varying distances and azimuths from the one or more source locations;
• analyzing results of the seismic testing to generate data points distributed through a geological volume, each data point being associated with values of one or more geological attributes derived from the results of the seismic testing and at least some of which are indicative of possibility for fluid migration at the data point;
• determining a starting object which is located within the geological volume and which defines an initial position of a fluid boundary at a plurality of the data points;
• defining an expression which determines a change in position of the fluid boundary at the data points from forces acting on the object at the fluid boundary, where the forces are determined from the values of the one or more geological attributes associated with the data points and the forces are (i) force normal to the object boundary, (ii) directional force on the object, and (iii) curvature force which minimizes curvature of the object boundary;
• applying the expression at the data points for successive iterations to evolve the position of the fluid boundary over the successive iterations, whereby the migration pathway of the subterranean fluid through the geological volume can be determined from the evolution of the position of the fluid boundary;
• and
• modifying operation of one or more hydrocarbon extraction wells so as to inhibit flow along the predicted migration pathway or so as to access hydrocarbon which has already flowed along the predicted pathway.