Inventory optimization based on leftover demand distribution function

A computer-implemented method, comprising:

• receiving historical leftover demand data for an item over multiple planning horizons of an inventory management system;
• receiving an input associated with the item, the input describing a quantity of the item available from one or more inventory facilities associated with the inventory management system and arrival data for the item available from the one or more inventory facilities during a current planning horizon;
• modeling, based at least in part on the input, an impact to an expected demand for the item between the current planning horizon and a next planning horizon by at least:
• estimating a shortage in the quantity of the item within the current planning horizon based at least in part on a demand distribution function for the current planning horizon and on the quantity of the item,
• estimating an unfulfilled demand during the current planning horizon based at least in part on the shortage, and
• estimating a leftover demand for the item based at least in part on the historical leftover demand data and the arrival data of the item, the leftover demand being less than unfulfilled demand during the current planning horizon;
• estimating a quantity of the item to order for the next planning horizon based at least in part on an optimization model that utilizes a supply distribution function for the next planning horizon, the quantity of the item available from the one or more inventory facilities, and the leftover demand;
• and
• providing the quantity of the item to order to an ordering system of the inventory management system.

One or more non-transitory computer-readable storage media collectively storing computer-executable instructions that, when executed by one or more computer systems, configure the one or more computer systems to collectively perform operations comprising:

• receiving historical leftover demand data for an item over multiple planning horizons of an inventory management system;
• receiving an input associated with the item, the input describing a quantity of the item available from one or more inventory facilities associated with the inventory management system and arrival data for the item available from one or more inventory facilities during a current planning horizon;
• modeling, based at least in part on the input, an impact to an expected demand for the item between the current planning horizon and a next planning horizon by at least:
• estimating a shortage in the quantity of the item within the current planning horizon based at least in part on a demand distribution function for the current planning horizon and on the quantity of the item,
• estimating an unfulfilled demand during the current planning horizon based at least in part on the shortage, and
• estimating a leftover demand for the item to be fulfilled in the next planning horizon, the leftover demand being estimated based at least in part on the historical leftover demand data and the arrival data of the item, the leftover demand being less than unfulfilled demand during the current planning horizon;
• computing a next quantity of the item to order for the next planning horizon based at least in part on an optimization model that utilizes a supply distribution function for the next planning horizon, the next quantity of the item available from the one or more inventory facilities, and the leftover demand;
• and
• providing the next quantity of the item to an ordering system of the inventory management system.